Woltmershausen v Geestemünde prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Woltmershausen 0–3 Geestemünde GEESTEMÜNDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Geestemünde win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Geestemünde are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Woltmershausen 27%, draw 17%, Geestemünde 56%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 82%.

The AI’s read on Woltmershausen v GeestemündeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Woltmershausen win27%

Draw17%

Geestemünde win56%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundBremen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Woltmershausen

Geestemünde

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Geestemünde	10	−3	14
16	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · geestemünde winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Geestemünde a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.9, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Woltmershausen v Geestemünde~~2.06 – 2.94

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~16 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Geestemünde win

Published at 54%, 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Woltmershausen win	27%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Geestemünde win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	82%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	72%	–	–
Woltmershausen or draw	44%	–	–
Woltmershausen clean sheet	6%	–	–
Geestemünde clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.0%

0123450 3.1 2.9 2.1 1 4.4 6.0 5.7 4.2 2.52 4.3 6.0 5.7 4.2 2.53 2.9 4.1 3.9 2.8 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Woltmershausen down, Geestemünde across0–5 goals a side shown (89.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,347 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.88 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Woltmershausen at home: 0.50 scored, 4.33 conceded a game (last 6). Geestemünde away: 2.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Woltmershausen, 2.94 for Geestemünde. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.88

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WOL 1–1 GEE · GEE 6–5 WOL · GEE 1–0 WOL · WOL 2–3 GEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept

WOLTMERSHAUSEN

LLLLLL1–3 · 2–3 · 1–7 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–4

GEESTEMÜNDE

LWDLWW0–1 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 1–7 · 5–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brinkumer SV	11	+29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	−3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	−3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	−12	12
12	Leher TS	10	+5	11
13	Grohn	11	−23	10
14	Oberneuland	11	−31	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	−17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4