Werder Bremen III v Oberneuland prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 17:17

Werder Bremen III 3–4 Oberneuland WERDER BREMEN III WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Werder Bremen III win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.716

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Werder Bremen III are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Werder Bremen III 47%, draw 20%, Oberneuland 33%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Werder Bremen III v OberneulandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Werder Bremen III win47%

Draw20%

Oberneuland win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundBremen · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Werder Bremen III

Oberneuland

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · werder bremen iii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Werder Bremen III a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Werder Bremen III v Oberneuland~~2.32 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 4 v 2~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Werder Bremen III win	47%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Oberneuland win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
Werder Bremen III or draw	67%	–	–
Werder Bremen III clean sheet	16%	–	–
Oberneuland clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.7 2.8 1 3.3 6.7 6.1 3.9 2 4.0 7.2 6.8 4.4 2.1 3 3.1 5.5 5.2 3.3 4 3.3 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Werder Bremen III down, Oberneuland across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,342 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Werder Bremen III at home: 2.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Oberneuland away: 0.83 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for Werder Bremen III, 1.91 for Oberneuland. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~OBE 4–0 WER · WER 4–2 OBE · WER 0–2 OBE · OBE 2–2 WER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug

WERDER BREMEN III

LLWLDL2–5 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

OBERNEULAND

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–12 · 0–3 · 0–6 · 0–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	+26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
7	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
9	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
12	BTS Neustadt	10	−14	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2