Vatan Sport v Hemelingen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Vatan Sport 0–6 Hemelingen HEMELINGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–4 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hemelingen win~~87%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.026

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hemelingen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vatan Sport 5%, draw 8%, Hemelingen 87%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Vatan Sport v HemelingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Vatan Sport win5%

Draw8%

Hemelingen win87%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundBremen · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vatan Sport

Hemelingen

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hemelingen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

87% The market–

Us87%

We make Hemelingen an 87% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–4.2, and 1–4 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vatan Sport v Hemelingen~~1.06 – 4.17

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 25~~6 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hemelingen win

Published at 86%, 87% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vatan Sport win	5%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Hemelingen win	87%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	75%	–	–
Vatan Sport or draw	13%	–	–
Vatan Sport clean sheet	2%	–	–
Hemelingen clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–4 at 6.6%

0123450 2.4 4.9 6.5 6.6 5.51 2.6 4.9 6.5 6.6 5.52 2.7 3.5 3.6 2.93 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vatan Sport down, Hemelingen across0–5 goals a side shown (75.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,338 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vatan Sport at home: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hemelingen away: 4.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Vatan Sport, 4.17 for Hemelingen. Most likely score 1–4.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HEM 7–2 VAT · VAT 0–7 HEM · VAT 0–9 HEM · HEM 2–2 VAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 30 Aug

VATAN SPORT

LLLWLW2–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

HEMELINGEN

WWWWDW3–1 · 5–0 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	9	+31	25
2	Blumenthaler SV	9	+25	24
3	Brinkumer SV	9	+25	24
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	9	+9	16
6	Vatan Sport	9	+2	13
7	Schwachhausen	9	−6	13
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
9	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
12	BTS Neustadt	9	−13	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	9	−23	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2