Union Bremen v Werder Bremen III prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Union Bremen 2–2 Werder Bremen III UNION BREMEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Bremen win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.101

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Bremen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Bremen 61%, draw 17%, Werder Bremen III 22%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Union Bremen v Werder Bremen IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Union Bremen win61%

Draw17%

Werder Bremen III win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundBremen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Bremen

Werder Bremen III

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Union Bremen	10	−3	12
15	Werder Bremen III	10	−17	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union bremen winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Union Bremen a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Bremen v Werder Bremen III~~2.86 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 4~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Bremen win

Published at 62%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Bremen win	61%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Werder Bremen III win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Union Bremen or draw	78%	–	–
Union Bremen clean sheet	19%	–	–
Werder Bremen III clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.1%

0123450 1 2.9 5.4 4.4 2.5 2 4.3 7.1 6.0 3.5 3 4.0 6.6 5.6 3.2 4 2.9 4.7 4.0 2.3 5 2.8 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Bremen down, Werder Bremen III across0–5 goals a side shown (91.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,347 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.8% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.62 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Bremen at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Werder Bremen III away: 0.67 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Union Bremen, 1.72 for Werder Bremen III. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.62

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WER 3–1 UNI · UNI 4–3 WER · UNI 4–1 WER · WER 2–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept

UNION BREMEN

LWDWLL0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–4

WERDER BREMEN III

LWLDLL0–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brinkumer SV	11	+29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	−3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	−3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	−12	12
12	Leher TS	10	+5	11
13	Grohn	11	−23	10
14	Oberneuland	11	−31	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	−17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4