Schwachhausen v Grohn prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Schwachhausen 3–0 Grohn SCHWACHHAUSEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Schwachhausen win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Schwachhausen win44%

Draw21%

Grohn win35%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Schwachhausen

Grohn

14Days since last match15

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Grohn	8	−9	10
11	Schwachhausen	8	−9	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · schwachhausen winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Schwachhausen a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwachhausen win	44%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Grohn win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Schwachhausen or draw	65%	–	–
Schwachhausen clean sheet	17%	–	–
Grohn clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.9 3.8 3.6 2.2 1 4.2 8.0 6.7 4.1 2 4.4 7.5 6.7 4.1 3 3.0 5.2 4.6 2.8 4 2.8 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwachhausen down, Grohn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,334 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.9% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Schwachhausen at home: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Grohn away: 2.00 scored, 2.25 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Schwachhausen, 1.83 for Grohn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen

SCHWACHHAUSEN

WWWLLD3–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 1–1

GROHN

LWLLWL0–7 · 3–2 · 2–5 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Blumenthaler SV	9	+25	24
2	Brinkumer SV	9	+25	24
3	Hemelingen	8	+28	22
4	OSC Bremerhaven	8	+27	19
5	Aumund-Vegesack	8	+6	13
6	Vatan Sport	9	+2	13
7	Union Bremen	9	0	12
8	Eiche Horn	8	−4	12
9	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
10	Grohn	8	−9	10
11	Schwachhausen	8	−9	10
12	BTS Neustadt	9	−13	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	9	−23	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2