Hemelingen v Blumenthaler SV prediction · Oberliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HemelingenDrawBlumenthaler SV

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Hemelingen 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hemelingen are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hemelingen 64%, draw 18%, Blumenthaler SV 18%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Hemelingen v Blumenthaler SVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hemelingen win64%

Draw18%

Blumenthaler SV win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundBremen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hemelingen

Blumenthaler SV

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hemelingen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Hemelingen a 64% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hemelingen v Blumenthaler SV~~2.66 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 6 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 28 v 27~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hemelingen win	64%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Blumenthaler SV win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Hemelingen or draw	82%	–	–
Hemelingen clean sheet	26%	–	–
Blumenthaler SV clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.4 2.4 1 4.8 6.8 4.4 2.1 2 6.3 8.2 5.6 2.7 3 5.4 7.1 5.0 2.4 4 3.6 4.8 3.4 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Hemelingen down, Blumenthaler SV across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,350 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.6% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.90 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hemelingen at home: 4.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Blumenthaler SV away: 3.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.66 goals for Hemelingen, 1.39 for Blumenthaler SV. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.90

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BLU 3–2 HEM · HEM 1–1 BLU · HEM 3–1 BLU · BLU 1–2 HEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 6 Sept

HEMELINGEN

WWWDWW5–0 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 6–0

BLUMENTHALER SV

WWLWWW5–2 · 6–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brinkumer SV	11	+29	30
2	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
3	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	11	+31	25
5	Aumund-Vegesack	11	+6	17
6	Geestemünde	11	0	17
7	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
8	Union Bremen	11	−3	13
9	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
10	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
11	BTS Neustadt	11	−12	12
12	Leher TS	10	+5	11
13	Grohn	11	−23	10
14	Werder Bremen III	11	−17	5
15	Oberneuland	11	−31	5
16	Woltmershausen	11	−30	4