Grohn v Leher TS prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Grohn 1–9 Leher TS LEHER TS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leher TS win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leher TS are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grohn 36%, draw 22%, Leher TS 42%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Grohn v Leher TSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grohn win36%

Draw22%

Leher TS win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundBremen · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grohn

Leher TS

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leher ts winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Leher TS a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grohn v Leher TS~~1.78 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~11 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grohn win	36%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Leher TS win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Grohn or draw	58%	–	–
Grohn clean sheet	15%	–	–
Leher TS clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.2 4.6 4.7 3.0 1 4.2 8.6 7.8 5.0 2.5 2 4.0 7.2 6.8 4.3 2.2 3 2.4 4.3 4.1 2.6 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grohn down, Leher TS across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,342 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Grohn at home: 1.25 scored, 3.25 conceded a game (last 4). Leher TS away: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Grohn, 1.93 for Leher TS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug

GROHN

WLLWLL3–2 · 2–5 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

LEHER TS

LWLDDW0–3 · 4–0 · 0–6 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 7–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	+26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
7	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
9	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
12	BTS Neustadt	10	−14	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2