Geestemünde v Union Bremen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Geestemünde 4–1 Union Bremen UNION BREMEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Bremen win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Bremen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Geestemünde 35%, draw 18%, Union Bremen 47%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 84%.

The AI’s read on Geestemünde v Union BremenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Geestemünde win35%

Draw18%

Union Bremen win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:00

RoundBremen · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Geestemünde

Union Bremen

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union bremen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Union Bremen a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–2.8, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Geestemünde v Union Bremen~~2.39 – 2.76

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~10 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Geestemünde win	35%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Union Bremen win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	88%	–	–
Both teams to score	84%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	74%	–	–
Geestemünde or draw	53%	–	–
Geestemünde clean sheet	7%	–	–
Union Bremen clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.1%

0123450 2.3 2.1 1 4.2 5.2 4.7 3.2 2 4.7 6.1 5.4 3.7 2.13 3.7 4.8 4.3 2.9 4 2.2 2.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Geestemünde down, Union Bremen across0–5 goals a side shown (89.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,342 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.6% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Geestemünde at home: 2.83 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 6). Union Bremen away: 3.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Geestemünde, 2.76 for Union Bremen. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GEE 4–4 UNI · UNI 3–2 GEE · GEE 3–0 UNI · UNI 1–5 GEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 28 Aug

GEESTEMÜNDE

WLWDLW5–2 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 1–7 · 5–1

UNION BREMEN

LLWDWL1–6 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	+26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
7	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
9	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
12	BTS Neustadt	10	−14	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2