Brinkumer SV v Grohn prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

Brinkumer SV 3–0 Grohn BRINKUMER SV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG4–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brinkumer SV win~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.030

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brinkumer SV are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brinkumer SV 86%, draw 8%, Grohn 6%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Brinkumer SV v GrohnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Brinkumer SV win86%

Draw8%

Grohn win6%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBremen · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brinkumer SV

Grohn

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Brinkumer SV	10	+26	27
12	Grohn	10	−20	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brinkumer sv winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make Brinkumer SV an 86% chance to win. The model expects 4.5–1.2, and 4–1 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brinkumer SV v Grohn~~4.54 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 10~~3 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brinkumer SV win

Published at 79%, 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brinkumer SV win	86%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Grohn win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	91%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	80%	–	–
Brinkumer SV or draw	94%	–	–
Brinkumer SV clean sheet	31%	–	–
Grohn clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–1 at 6.1%

0123450 1 2.3 2 3.6 4.4 2.8 3 4.9 5.9 3.7 4 5.2 6.1 3.7 5 4.6 5.2 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Brinkumer SV down, Grohn across0–5 goals a side shown (69.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,345 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 77.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Brinkumer SV at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Grohn away: 1.60 scored, 2.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

4.54 goals for Brinkumer SV, 1.22 for Grohn. Most likely score 4–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 5 Sept

BRINKUMER SV

WWWWWW1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 7–1 · 4–0 · 4–3

GROHN

LLWLLL2–5 · 3–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–9

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	10	+37	28
2	Blumenthaler SV	10	+29	27
3	Brinkumer SV	10	+26	27
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	10	+9	17
6	Geestemünde	10	−3	14
7	Schwachhausen	10	−6	14
8	Vatan Sport	10	−4	13
9	Union Bremen	10	−3	12
10	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
11	Leher TS	10	+5	11
12	Grohn	10	−20	10
13	BTS Neustadt	10	−14	9
14	Oberneuland	10	−29	5
15	Werder Bremen III	10	−17	4
16	Woltmershausen	10	−27	4