Aumund-Vegesack v Schwachhausen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Aumund-Vegesack 3–3 Schwachhausen AUMUND-VEGESACK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aumund-Vegesack win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aumund-Vegesack are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aumund-Vegesack 56%, draw 19%, Schwachhausen 26%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Aumund-Vegesack v SchwachhausenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Aumund-Vegesack win56%

Draw19%

Schwachhausen win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBremen · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aumund-Vegesack

Schwachhausen

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Bremen

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Aumund-Vegesack	9	+9	16
7	Schwachhausen	9	−6	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aumund-vegesack winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Aumund-Vegesack a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.7, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aumund-Vegesack v Schwachhausen~~2.60 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~5 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aumund-Vegesack win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aumund-Vegesack win	56%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Schwachhausen win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Aumund-Vegesack or draw	74%	–	–
Aumund-Vegesack clean sheet	19%	–	–
Schwachhausen clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 2.2 2.1 1 3.4 6.2 5.1 3.0 2 4.5 7.4 6.3 3.7 3 3.8 6.2 5.3 3.1 4 2.5 4.1 3.5 2.0 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Aumund-Vegesack down, Schwachhausen across0–5 goals a side shown (93.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,338 Oberliga - Bremen matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bremen matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aumund-Vegesack at home: 1.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Schwachhausen away: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.60 goals for Aumund-Vegesack, 1.74 for Schwachhausen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SCH 0–3 AUM · AUM 1–0 SCH · AUM 2–2 SCH · SCH 2–2 AUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bremen this season · since 29 Aug

AUMUND-VEGESACK

LWLWDW2–3 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 7–1 · 1–1 · 5–2

SCHWACHHAUSEN

WWLLDW2–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Hemelingen	9	+31	25
2	Blumenthaler SV	9	+25	24
3	Brinkumer SV	9	+25	24
4	OSC Bremerhaven	10	+28	22
5	Aumund-Vegesack	9	+9	16
6	Vatan Sport	9	+2	13
7	Schwachhausen	9	−6	13
8	Union Bremen	9	0	12
9	Eiche Horn	10	−11	12
10	Geestemünde	9	−6	11
11	Grohn	9	−12	10
12	BTS Neustadt	9	−13	9
13	Leher TS	9	−3	8
14	Werder Bremen III	9	−16	4
15	Woltmershausen	9	−23	4
16	Oberneuland	9	−30	2