Sportfreunde Schwaig v Deisenhofen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Sportfreunde Schwaig 5–0 Deisenhofen SPORTFREUNDE SCHWAIG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sportfreunde Schwaig win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sportfreunde Schwaig are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportfreunde Schwaig 53%, draw 24%, Deisenhofen 23%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Sportfreunde Schwaig v DeisenhofenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sportfreunde Schwaig win53%

Draw24%

Deisenhofen win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportfreunde Schwaig

Deisenhofen

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	15	+11	24
14	Deisenhofen	15	−11	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sportfreunde schwaig winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Sportfreunde Schwaig a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportfreunde Schwaig v Deisenhofen~~1.92 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 16~~7 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sportfreunde Schwaig win

Published at 54%, 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportfreunde Schwaig win	53%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Deisenhofen win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Sportfreunde Schwaig or draw	77%	–	–
Sportfreunde Schwaig clean sheet	30%	–	–
Deisenhofen clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.5 4.5 3.3 1 7.6 10.9 6.1 2.5 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.1 6.1 3.7 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportfreunde Schwaig down, Deisenhofen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,290 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportfreunde Schwaig at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deisenhofen away: 1.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig, 1.21 for Deisenhofen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–0 DEI · DEI 2–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept

SPORTFREUNDE SCHWAIG

DDWDWD3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3

DEISENHOFEN

WDLLLW4–0 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	15	+23	33
2	1880 Wasserburg	15	+12	31
3	Erlbach	15	+12	29
4	Pfaffenhofen	15	+2	26
5	Landshut	15	+10	25
6	Hankofen-Hailing	15	+7	25
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	15	+11	24
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
9	1860 München II	15	+1	18
10	Gundelfingen	15	−1	18
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16
14	Deisenhofen	15	−11	16
15	Kirchanschöring	15	−11	15
16	1860 Rosenheim	15	−10	12
17	Schalding-Heining	15	−26	10
18	TuS Geretsried	15	−18	9