Sportfreunde Schwaig v 1860 München II prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Sportfreunde Schwaig 3–3 1860 München II 1860 MÜNCHEN II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1860 München II win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with 1860 München II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportfreunde Schwaig 36%, draw 26%, 1860 München II 39%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Sportfreunde Schwaig v 1860 München IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Sportfreunde Schwaig win36%

Draw26%

1860 München II win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportfreunde Schwaig

1860 München II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Sportfreunde Schwaig	14	+11	23
10	1860 München II	14	+1	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1860 münchen ii winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make 1860 München II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportfreunde Schwaig v 1860 München II~~1.51 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1860 München II win

Published at 40%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportfreunde Schwaig win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
1860 München II win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Sportfreunde Schwaig or draw	61%	–	–
Sportfreunde Schwaig clean sheet	21%	–	–
1860 München II clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.7 6.3 5.7 3.0 1 6.1 11.6 8.3 4.4 2 5.3 8.0 6.3 3.3 3 2.7 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportfreunde Schwaig down, 1860 München II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,281 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportfreunde Schwaig at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). 1860 München II away: 1.17 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Sportfreunde Schwaig, 1.58 for 1860 München II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUN 3–0 SPO · SPO 0–3 MUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 3 Sept

SPORTFREUNDE SCHWAIG

DDDWDW2–2 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

1860 MÜNCHEN II

WDLLWD4–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	14	+23	32
2	1880 Wasserburg	14	+10	28
3	Erlbach	14	+11	26
4	Landshut	14	+11	25
5	Hankofen-Hailing	14	+9	25
6	Sportfreunde Schwaig	14	+11	23
7	Pfaffenhofen	14	+1	23
8	Ismaning	14	+8	20
9	Gundelfingen	14	0	18
10	1860 München II	14	+1	17
11	Heimstetten	14	−2	17
12	Schwabmünchen	14	−1	16
13	Kottern	14	−6	16
14	Deisenhofen	14	−12	13
15	Kirchanschöring	14	−13	12
16	1860 Rosenheim	14	−10	11
17	Schalding-Heining	14	−24	10
18	TuS Geretsried	14	−17	9