Schwabmünchen v Erlbach prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Schwabmünchen 2–3 Erlbach ERLBACH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Erlbach win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erlbach are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schwabmünchen 32%, draw 29%, Erlbach 39%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Schwabmünchen v ErlbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Schwabmünchen win32%

Draw29%

Erlbach win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schwabmünchen

Erlbach

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Erlbach	14	+11	26
12	Schwabmünchen	14	−1	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erlbach winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Erlbach a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Schwabmünchen v Erlbach~~1.18 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 26~~12 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Schwabmünchen win	32%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Erlbach win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Schwabmünchen or draw	61%	–	–
Schwabmünchen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Erlbach clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.7 9.9 7.2 3.2 1 8.7 13.5 8.1 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.8 2.1 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Schwabmünchen down, Erlbach across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,282 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.6% of games this season, across 127 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Schwabmünchen at home: 3.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Erlbach away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Schwabmünchen, 1.31 for Erlbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 4 Sept

SCHWABMÜNCHEN

DLDLWW3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

ERLBACH

LWWDDW0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	14	+23	32
2	1880 Wasserburg	14	+10	28
3	Erlbach	14	+11	26
4	Landshut	14	+11	25
5	Hankofen-Hailing	14	+9	25
6	Sportfreunde Schwaig	15	+11	24
7	Pfaffenhofen	14	+1	23
8	Ismaning	14	+8	20
9	1860 München II	15	+1	18
10	Gundelfingen	14	0	18
11	Heimstetten	14	−2	17
12	Schwabmünchen	14	−1	16
13	Kottern	14	−6	16
14	Deisenhofen	14	−12	13
15	Kirchanschöring	14	−13	12
16	1860 Rosenheim	14	−10	11
17	Schalding-Heining	14	−24	10
18	TuS Geretsried	14	−17	9