Kottern v Heimstetten prediction · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Kottern 1–1 Heimstetten HEIMSTETTEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Heimstetten win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.863

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Heimstetten just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kottern 36%, draw 24%, Heimstetten 40%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Kottern v HeimstettenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kottern win36%

Draw24%

Heimstetten win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kottern

Heimstetten

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heimstetten winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Heimstetten a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kottern v Heimstetten~~1.66 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 18~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kottern win	36%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Heimstetten win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Kottern or draw	60%	–	–
Kottern clean sheet	18%	–	–
Heimstetten clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 5.1 5.1 3.0 1 4.8 10.4 8.2 4.8 2.1 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 3.9 3 2.6 4.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kottern down, Heimstetten across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,295 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kottern at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Heimstetten away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Kottern, 1.74 for Heimstetten. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HEI 3–0 KOT · KOT 2–2 HEI · HEI 3–2 KOT · KOT 4–3 HEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 11 Sept

KOTTERN

LWWDDD0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2

HEIMSTETTEN

LDWDLD1–5 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	16	+21	33
2	Erlbach	16	+13	32
3	1880 Wasserburg	16	+11	31
4	Landshut	16	+11	28
5	Sportfreunde Schwaig	16	+16	27
6	Pfaffenhofen	15	+2	26
7	Hankofen-Hailing	15	+7	25
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
9	1860 München II	16	+3	21
10	Gundelfingen	15	−1	18
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16
14	Deisenhofen	16	−16	16
15	1860 Rosenheim	16	−9	15
16	Kirchanschöring	15	−11	15
17	Schalding-Heining	16	−27	10
18	TuS Geretsried	16	−19	9