Ismaning v Schwabmünchen prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Ismaning 1–2 Schwabmünchen ISMANING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ismaning win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.773

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ismaning are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ismaning 48%, draw 22%, Schwabmünchen 30%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Ismaning v SchwabmünchenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ismaning win48%

Draw22%

Schwabmünchen win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ismaning

Schwabmünchen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ismaning winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Ismaning a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ismaning v Schwabmünchen~~2.18 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 16~~8 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ismaning win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Schwabmünchen win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Ismaning or draw	70%	–	–
Ismaning clean sheet	19%	–	–
Schwabmünchen clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.9 3.0 3.1 1 4.0 8.3 6.4 3.6 2 5.0 8.2 6.8 3.9 3 3.6 5.9 4.9 2.8 4 3.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ismaning down, Schwabmünchen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,295 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.0% of games this season, across 140 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Ismaning at home: 3.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Schwabmünchen away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Ismaning, 1.70 for Schwabmünchen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept

ISMANING

WLWLWW4–2 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1

SCHWABMÜNCHEN

LDLWWL1–4 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	16	+21	33
2	Erlbach	16	+13	32
3	1880 Wasserburg	16	+11	31
4	Landshut	16	+11	28
5	Sportfreunde Schwaig	16	+16	27
6	Pfaffenhofen	15	+2	26
7	Hankofen-Hailing	15	+7	25
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
9	1860 München II	16	+3	21
10	Gundelfingen	15	−1	18
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16
14	Deisenhofen	16	−16	16
15	1860 Rosenheim	16	−9	15
16	Kirchanschöring	15	−11	15
17	Schalding-Heining	16	−27	10
18	TuS Geretsried	16	−19	9