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Ismaning v Heimstetten

Ismaning

3–2Full time

Heimstetten

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Ismaning 3–2 Heimstetten ISMANING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ismaning win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.577

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ismaning win40%

Draw22%

Heimstetten win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ismaning winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Ismaning a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ismaning win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ismaning win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Heimstetten win	38%	38%	0
Over 2.5 goals	73%	64%	+10
Both teams to score	73%	65%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	41%	+12
Ismaning or draw	62%	62%	0
Ismaning clean sheet	15%	–	–
Heimstetten clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 3.6 3.9 2.5 1 3.6 8.6 7.4 4.7 2.2 2 4.1 7.6 7.1 4.5 2.2 3 2.7 4.9 4.6 2.9 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ismaning down, Heimstetten across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,275 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ismaning at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Heimstetten away: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Ismaning, 1.90 for Heimstetten. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~HEI 3–0 ISM · ISM 1–1 HEI · ISM 1–0 HEI · HEI 4–0 ISM

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd

ISMANING

LDWLWL0–2 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 0–1 · 5–2 · 1–2

HEIMSTETTEN

DWLDWD3–3 · 4–2 · 1–5 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	14	+23	32
2	1880 Wasserburg	14	+10	28
3	Erlbach	14	+11	26
4	Landshut	13	+12	25
5	Pfaffenhofen	14	+1	23
6	Hankofen-Hailing	13	+6	22
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	13	+10	20
8	Ismaning	13	+7	17
9	Heimstetten	13	−1	17
10	1860 München II	13	+1	16
11	Gundelfingen	13	−4	15
12	Kottern	13	−6	15
13	Schwabmünchen	13	−2	13
14	Deisenhofen	13	−9	13
15	Kirchanschöring	13	−12	12
16	1860 Rosenheim	14	−10	11
17	Schalding-Heining	13	−20	10
18	TuS Geretsried	14	−17	9