Home › Football › Oberliga - Bayern Süd › Erlbach v TuS Geretsried

Erlbach v TuS Geretsried

Erlbach

3–1Full time

TuS Geretsried

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Erlbach 3–1 TuS Geretsried ERLBACH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Erlbach win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Erlbach win54%

Draw29%

TuS Geretsried win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erlbach winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Erlbach a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erlbach win	54%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
TuS Geretsried win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Erlbach or draw	82%	–	–
Erlbach clean sheet	49%	–	–
TuS Geretsried clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.4%

0123450 12.5 7.2 3.0 1 15.4 12.6 4.3 2 11.9 8.5 3.1 3 5.9 4.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erlbach down, TuS Geretsried across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.4% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erlbach at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). TuS Geretsried away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Erlbach, 0.72 for TuS Geretsried. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ERL 1–2 TUS · TUS 1–2 ERL

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd

ERLBACH

WLWWDD2–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

TUS GERETSRIED

LLLLDL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	13	+20	29
2	Landshut	13	+12	25
3	1880 Wasserburg	13	+9	25
4	Erlbach	13	+9	23
5	Pfaffenhofen	13	+2	23
6	Hankofen-Hailing	13	+6	22
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	13	+10	20
8	Ismaning	13	+7	17
9	Heimstetten	13	−1	17
10	1860 München II	13	+1	16
11	Gundelfingen	13	−4	15
12	Kottern	13	−6	15
13	Schwabmünchen	13	−2	13
14	Deisenhofen	13	−9	13
15	Kirchanschöring	13	−12	12
16	1860 Rosenheim	13	−7	11
17	Schalding-Heining	13	−20	10
18	TuS Geretsried	13	−15	9