Erlbach v Schalding-Heining prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 03:29

Erlbach 2–1 Schalding-Heining ERLBACH WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Erlbach win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.210

Corrected on 24 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 0–0; the score is now 2–1 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erlbach are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erlbach 63%, draw 24%, Schalding-Heining 13%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Erlbach v Schalding-HeiningBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Erlbach win63%

Draw24%

Schalding-Heining win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erlbach

Schalding-Heining

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Erlbach	15	+12	29
17	Schalding-Heining	15	−26	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erlbach winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Erlbach a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erlbach v Schalding-Heining~~1.85 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 29 v 10~~3 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Erlbach win

Published at 62%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erlbach win	63%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Schalding-Heining win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Erlbach or draw	87%	–	–
Erlbach clean sheet	49%	–	–
Schalding-Heining clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 8.9 4.7 2.0 1 13.4 11.0 3.7 2 13.0 9.2 3.3 3 8.0 5.6 2.0 4 3.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erlbach down, Schalding-Heining across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,290 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Erlbach at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Schalding-Heining away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Erlbach, 0.72 for Schalding-Heining. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ERL 2–0 SCH · SCH 0–2 ERL · ERL 2–0 SCH · SCH 2–0 ERL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 11 Sept

ERLBACH

WWDDWW3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–2

SCHALDING-HEINING

DLWLLL1–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	15	+23	33
2	1880 Wasserburg	15	+12	31
3	Erlbach	15	+12	29
4	Pfaffenhofen	15	+2	26
5	Landshut	15	+10	25
6	Hankofen-Hailing	15	+7	25
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	15	+11	24
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
9	1860 München II	15	+1	18
10	Gundelfingen	15	−1	18
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16
14	Deisenhofen	15	−11	16
15	Kirchanschöring	15	−11	15
16	1860 Rosenheim	15	−10	12
17	Schalding-Heining	15	−26	10
18	TuS Geretsried	15	−18	9