1860 Rosenheim v TuS Geretsried prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

1860 Rosenheim 2–1 TuS Geretsried 1860 ROSENHEIM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said 1860 Rosenheim win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

1860 Rosenheim are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: 1860 Rosenheim 40%, draw 26%, TuS Geretsried 35%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on 1860 Rosenheim v TuS GeretsriedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

1860 Rosenheim win40%

Draw26%

TuS Geretsried win35%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern Süd · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

1860 Rosenheim

TuS Geretsried

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Süd

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	1860 Rosenheim	15	−10	12
18	TuS Geretsried	15	−18	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · 1860 rosenheim winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make 1860 Rosenheim a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · 1860 Rosenheim v TuS Geretsried~~1.58 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · 1860 Rosenheim win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
1860 Rosenheim win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
TuS Geretsried win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
1860 Rosenheim or draw	65%	–	–
1860 Rosenheim clean sheet	24%	–	–
TuS Geretsried clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 6.1 5.1 2.6 1 6.7 11.7 7.8 3.9 2 6.0 8.5 6.1 3.0 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+1860 Rosenheim down, TuS Geretsried across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,290 Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Süd matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

1860 Rosenheim at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). TuS Geretsried away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for 1860 Rosenheim, 1.46 for TuS Geretsried. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Süd this season · since 12 Sept

1860 ROSENHEIM

LDLLLD2–4 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–1

TUS GERETSRIED

LLDLLL0–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pipinsried	15	+23	33
2	1880 Wasserburg	15	+12	31
3	Erlbach	15	+12	29
4	Pfaffenhofen	15	+2	26
5	Landshut	15	+10	25
6	Hankofen-Hailing	15	+7	25
7	Sportfreunde Schwaig	15	+11	24
8	Ismaning	15	+9	23
9	1860 München II	15	+1	18
10	Gundelfingen	15	−1	18
11	Heimstetten	15	−2	18
12	Kottern	15	−6	17
13	Schwabmünchen	15	−2	16
14	Deisenhofen	15	−11	16
15	Kirchanschöring	15	−11	15
16	1860 Rosenheim	15	−10	12
17	Schalding-Heining	15	−26	10
18	TuS Geretsried	15	−18	9