Weiden v Nordlingen prediction · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Weiden 1–1 Nordlingen WEIDEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Weiden win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weiden are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Weiden 61%, draw 20%, Nordlingen 19%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Weiden v NordlingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Weiden win61%

Draw20%

Nordlingen win19%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weiden

Nordlingen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Weiden	14	−9	13
17	Nordlingen	14	−17	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weiden winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Weiden a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Weiden v Nordlingen~~2.22 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~15 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weiden win	61%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Nordlingen win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Weiden or draw	81%	–	–
Weiden clean sheet	33%	–	–
Nordlingen clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.1 3.8 2.4 1 7.5 9.1 5.0 2 8.5 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 6.3 6.9 3.9 4 3.5 3.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weiden down, Nordlingen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Weiden at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nordlingen away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Weiden, 1.14 for Nordlingen. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept

WEIDEN

LWLLDD1–2 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

NORDLINGEN

LLLDLL1–4 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Kornburg	15	+14	27
3	Würzburger FV	14	+9	27
4	Gebenbach	14	+6	26
5	Eintracht Bamberg	14	+11	25
6	Bayern Hof	14	+8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	+6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	+9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	+6	21
10	Stadeln	14	−3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	14	−9	15
14	Ingolstadt II	14	−8	13
15	Weiden	14	−9	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	14	−17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6