Weiden v Ingolstadt II prediction · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Weiden 4–3 Ingolstadt II WEIDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Weiden win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Weiden are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Weiden 45%, draw 23%, Ingolstadt II 32%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Weiden v Ingolstadt IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Weiden win45%

Draw23%

Ingolstadt II win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Weiden

Ingolstadt II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
16	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · weiden winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Weiden a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Weiden v Ingolstadt II~~1.89 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~14 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Weiden win	45%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ingolstadt II win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Weiden or draw	68%	–	–
Weiden clean sheet	21%	–	–
Ingolstadt II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.8 4.6 3.9 2.1 1 5.6 9.8 7.2 3.8 2 5.7 8.6 6.7 3.5 3 3.6 5.4 4.2 2.2 4 2.6 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Weiden down, Ingolstadt II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,365 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 139 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Weiden at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ingolstadt II away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for Weiden, 1.56 for Ingolstadt II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WEI 0–3 ING · ING 0–3 WEI · WEI 0–2 ING · ING 1–0 WEI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept

WEIDEN

WLLDDD3–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

INGOLSTADT II

DDLWLL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	16	+29	43
2	Bayern Hof	16	+11	29
3	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
4	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
5	Kornburg	15	+14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	+1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	+6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	−5	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	16	−14	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	DJK Bamberg	16	−14	14
16	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	−23	6