Viktoria Aschaffenburg v Gebenbach prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 0–0 Gebenbach VIKTORIA ASCHAFFENBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viktoria Aschaffenburg win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.888

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.912

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viktoria Aschaffenburg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 44%, draw 23%, Gebenbach 33%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Viktoria Aschaffenburg v GebenbachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win44%

Draw23%

Gebenbach win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

Gebenbach

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gebenbach	15	+1	26
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	15	+6	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viktoria aschaffenburg winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Viktoria Aschaffenburg a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viktoria Aschaffenburg v Gebenbach~~1.81 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 26~~9 v 7

~~The market · Viktoria Aschaffenburg win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viktoria Aschaffenburg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viktoria Aschaffenburg win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Gebenbach win	33%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Both teams to score	65%	69%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw	67%	63%	+4
Viktoria Aschaffenburg clean sheet	22%	–	–
Gebenbach clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 5.1 4.2 2.2 1 6.0 10.1 7.4 3.8 2 5.7 8.6 6.6 3.4 3 3.5 5.2 4.0 2.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viktoria Aschaffenburg down, Gebenbach across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2022/23.

Home and away form

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gebenbach away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg, 1.55 for Gebenbach. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2022/23

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2022/23.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 11 Sept

VIKTORIA ASCHAFFENBURG

LWDDWD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

GEBENBACH

LWDLLL0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	15	+25	40
2	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
3	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
4	Kornburg	15	+14	27
5	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
6	Bayern Hof	15	+10	26
7	Gebenbach	15	+1	26
8	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	15	+6	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	15	−11	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	15	−19	6