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Viktoria Aschaffenburg v Fortuna Regensburg

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

1–0Full time

Fortuna Regensburg

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Viktoria Aschaffenburg 1–0 Fortuna Regensburg FORTUNA REGENSBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Regensburg win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win39%

Draw20%

Fortuna Regensburg win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna regensburg winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Fortuna Regensburg a 40% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viktoria Aschaffenburg win	39%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Viktoria Aschaffenburg or draw	60%	–	–
Viktoria Aschaffenburg clean sheet	13%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.0%

0123450 3.2 3.5 2.4 1 3.2 7.0 6.9 4.8 2.5 2 3.5 6.9 7.0 4.8 2.6 3 2.4 4.7 4.8 3.3 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viktoria Aschaffenburg down, Fortuna Regensburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Viktoria Aschaffenburg at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Regensburg away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Viktoria Aschaffenburg, 2.09 for Fortuna Regensburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2022

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord

VIKTORIA ASCHAFFENBURG

LLLWDD1–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

FORTUNA REGENSBURG

DWWWDD3–3 · 2–1 · 6–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Würzburger FV	13	+9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	+9	26
4	Kornburg	14	+11	24
5	Eintracht Bamberg	13	+11	24
6	Jahn Regensburg II	13	+6	22
7	Fortuna Regensburg	13	+10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	+5	20
9	Neudrossenfeld	14	−2	19
10	Stadeln	13	−3	19
11	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	+5	18
12	Ammerthal	13	−9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	14	−7	13
14	Weiden	13	−9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	14	−15	11
16	Großbardorf	13	−13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	−14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6