Stadeln v Viktoria Aschaffenburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Stadeln 1–1 Viktoria Aschaffenburg VIKTORIA ASCHAFFENBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Viktoria Aschaffenburg win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viktoria Aschaffenburg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stadeln 31%, draw 24%, Viktoria Aschaffenburg 44%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Stadeln v Viktoria AschaffenburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Stadeln win31%

Draw24%

Viktoria Aschaffenburg win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stadeln

Viktoria Aschaffenburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	+6	21
10	Stadeln	14	−3	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viktoria aschaffenburg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Viktoria Aschaffenburg a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stadeln v Viktoria Aschaffenburg~~1.38 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 21~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stadeln win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Viktoria Aschaffenburg win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Stadeln or draw	56%	–	–
Stadeln clean sheet	19%	–	–
Viktoria Aschaffenburg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.5 6.6 3.7 1 6.1 11.1 8.9 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.3 6.1 3.4 3 2.1 3.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stadeln down, Viktoria Aschaffenburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024.

Home and away form

Stadeln at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Viktoria Aschaffenburg away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Stadeln, 1.68 for Viktoria Aschaffenburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 5 Sept

STADELN

LLLWWD1–2 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

VIKTORIA ASCHAFFENBURG

LLWDDW1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Kornburg	15	+14	27
3	Würzburger FV	14	+9	27
4	Gebenbach	14	+6	26
5	Eintracht Bamberg	14	+11	25
6	Bayern Hof	14	+8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	+6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	+9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	+6	21
10	Stadeln	14	−3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	14	−9	15
14	Ingolstadt II	14	−8	13
15	Weiden	14	−9	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	14	−17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6