Nordlingen v Fortuna Regensburg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Nordlingen 2–1 Fortuna Regensburg FORTUNA REGENSBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Regensburg win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.946

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Regensburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nordlingen 23%, draw 20%, Fortuna Regensburg 57%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Nordlingen v Fortuna RegensburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nordlingen win23%

Draw20%

Fortuna Regensburg win57%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nordlingen

Fortuna Regensburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna regensburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Fortuna Regensburg a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nordlingen v Fortuna Regensburg~~1.52 – 2.42

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 22~~17 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nordlingen win	23%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Nordlingen or draw	43%	–	–
Nordlingen clean sheet	10%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.5 4.5 5.8 4.6 2.8 1 2.8 7.6 8.5 6.7 4.1 2.02 2.4 5.4 6.3 5.0 3.1 3 2.8 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nordlingen down, Fortuna Regensburg across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,365 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 139 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Nordlingen at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Regensburg away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Nordlingen, 2.42 for Fortuna Regensburg. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept

NORDLINGEN

LLDLLD0–1 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–5 · 2–5 · 1–1

FORTUNA REGENSBURG

WWDDLD6–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	16	+29	43
2	Bayern Hof	16	+11	29
3	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
4	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
5	Kornburg	15	+14	27
6	Gebenbach	16	+1	27
7	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
8	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	16	+6	23
9	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	16	−5	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	16	−14	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	DJK Bamberg	16	−14	14
16	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	16	−23	6