Neudrossenfeld v Bayern Hof prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Neudrossenfeld 2–3 Bayern Hof BAYERN HOF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern Hof win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern Hof are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neudrossenfeld 34%, draw 24%, Bayern Hof 43%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Neudrossenfeld v Bayern HofBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Neudrossenfeld win34%

Draw24%

Bayern Hof win43%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neudrossenfeld

Bayern Hof

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bayern Hof	15	+10	26
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayern hof winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Bayern Hof a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neudrossenfeld v Bayern Hof~~1.52 – 1.73

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 26~~11 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern Hof win

Published at 42%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neudrossenfeld win	34%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Bayern Hof win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Neudrossenfeld or draw	57%	–	–
Neudrossenfeld clean sheet	18%	–	–
Bayern Hof clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 6.4 5.8 3.4 1 5.6 10.5 8.6 5.0 2.2 2 4.5 7.6 6.5 3.7 3 2.3 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neudrossenfeld down, Bayern Hof across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neudrossenfeld at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern Hof away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Neudrossenfeld, 1.73 for Bayern Hof. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAY 1–1 NEU · NEU 1–2 BAY · BAY 0–0 NEU · NEU 1–1 BAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 11 Sept

NEUDROSSENFELD

WLDWWL1–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–3

BAYERN HOF

WDDLWW4–0 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 5–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	15	+25	40
2	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
3	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
4	Kornburg	15	+14	27
5	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
6	Bayern Hof	15	+10	26
7	Gebenbach	15	+1	26
8	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	15	+6	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	15	−11	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	15	−19	6