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Kornburg v Ingolstadt II

Kornburg

2–0Full time

Ingolstadt II

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 19:45

Kornburg 2–0 Ingolstadt II KORNBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kornburg win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.430

Corrected on 12 Oct: this match was first graded on a score of 1–0; the score is now 2–0 and the grades above follow it.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kornburg win47%

Draw23%

Ingolstadt II win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kornburg winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Kornburg a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kornburg win	47%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ingolstadt II win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Kornburg or draw	69%	–	–
Kornburg clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ingolstadt II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 4.8 3.8 1 6.1 9.8 7.0 3.6 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.8 5.6 4.1 2.1 4 2.7 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kornburg down, Ingolstadt II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,343 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 117 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kornburg at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ingolstadt II away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Kornburg, 1.50 for Ingolstadt II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ING 3–1 KOR · KOR 2–1 ING · ING 3–0 KOR · KOR 5–0 ING

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord

KORNBURG

DDLLDW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

INGOLSTADT II

LLDDLW0–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	13	+22	34
2	Würzburger FV	13	+9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	+9	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	13	+11	24
5	Jahn Regensburg II	13	+6	22
6	Fortuna Regensburg	13	+10	21
7	Kornburg	13	+10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	+5	20
9	Stadeln	13	−3	19
10	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	+5	18
11	Neudrossenfeld	13	−6	16
12	Ammerthal	13	−9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	13	−6	13
14	Weiden	13	−9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	13	−14	11
16	Großbardorf	13	−13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	−14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	13	−13	6