Großbardorf v DJK Bamberg prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Großbardorf 3–1 DJK Bamberg GROSSBARDORF WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Großbardorf win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.421

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Großbardorf are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Großbardorf 47%, draw 24%, DJK Bamberg 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Großbardorf v DJK BambergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Großbardorf win47%

Draw24%

DJK Bamberg win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Großbardorf

DJK Bamberg

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Großbardorf	14	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	14	−15	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · großbardorf winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Großbardorf a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Großbardorf v DJK Bamberg~~1.71 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Großbardorf win

Published at 43%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Großbardorf win	47%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
DJK Bamberg win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Großbardorf or draw	72%	–	–
Großbardorf clean sheet	29%	–	–
DJK Bamberg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.9 6.1 4.2 1 8.3 11.2 6.8 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Großbardorf down, DJK Bamberg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,352 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Großbardorf at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). DJK Bamberg away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Großbardorf, 1.28 for DJK Bamberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DJK 1–4 GRO · GRO 4–1 DJK · DJK 1–0 GRO · GRO 4–2 DJK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept

GROSSBARDORF

WLLLLW3–1 · 2–6 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

DJK BAMBERG

WWDDDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Würzburger FV	14	+9	27
3	Gebenbach	14	+6	26
4	Eintracht Bamberg	14	+11	25
5	Kornburg	14	+12	24
6	Bayern Hof	14	+8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	+6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	+9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	+6	21
10	Stadeln	14	−3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	14	−2	19
12	Ammerthal	14	−9	15
13	Ingolstadt II	14	−8	13
14	Weiden	14	−9	13
15	Großbardorf	14	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	14	−15	11
17	Nordlingen	14	−17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6