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Gebenbach v Großbardorf

Gebenbach

1–4Full time

Großbardorf

Oberliga - Bayern Nord · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Gebenbach 1–4 Großbardorf GEBENBACH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gebenbach win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.137

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Gebenbach win63%

Draw20%

Großbardorf win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gebenbach winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Gebenbach a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gebenbach win	63%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Großbardorf win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Gebenbach or draw	83%	–	–
Gebenbach clean sheet	36%	–	–
Großbardorf clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.5%

0123450 4.5 3.9 2.2 1 8.5 9.1 4.6 2 9.5 9.5 4.9 3 7.0 6.9 3.6 4 3.9 3.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gebenbach down, Großbardorf across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.8% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gebenbach at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Großbardorf away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Gebenbach, 1.03 for Großbardorf. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GEB 4–0 GRO · GRO 0–6 GEB

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord

GEBENBACH

WDLWDL3–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

GROSSBARDORF

WWLLLL4–1 · 3–1 · 2–6 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Würzburger FV	13	+9	26
3	Gebenbach	13	+9	26
4	Kornburg	14	+11	24
5	Eintracht Bamberg	13	+11	24
6	Jahn Regensburg II	13	+6	22
7	Fortuna Regensburg	13	+10	21
8	Bayern Hof	13	+5	20
9	Neudrossenfeld	14	−2	19
10	Stadeln	13	−3	19
11	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	13	+5	18
12	Ammerthal	13	−9	14
13	Ingolstadt II	14	−7	13
14	Weiden	13	−9	12
15	DJK Bamberg	14	−15	11
16	Großbardorf	13	−13	10
17	Nordlingen	13	−14	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6