Fortuna Regensburg v Würzburger FV prediction · Oberliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Fortuna Regensburg 2–2 Würzburger FV FORTUNA REGENSBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortuna Regensburg win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.991

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Regensburg are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Regensburg 54%, draw 20%, Würzburger FV 26%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Regensburg v Würzburger FVBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Regensburg win54%

Draw20%

Würzburger FV win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Regensburg

Würzburger FV

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Würzburger FV	14	+9	27
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	+9	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna regensburg winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Fortuna Regensburg a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Regensburg v Würzburger FV~~2.31 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 27~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Regensburg win	54%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Würzburger FV win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	54%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg or draw	74%	–	–
Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Würzburger FV clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.5 3.0 2.6 1 4.5 7.8 5.8 3.1 2 5.5 8.4 6.6 3.5 3 4.2 6.5 5.1 2.7 4 2.5 3.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Regensburg down, Würzburger FV across0–5 goals a side shown (96.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.9% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fortuna Regensburg at home: 4.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Würzburger FV away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Fortuna Regensburg, 1.58 for Würzburger FV. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WUR 2–0 FOR · FOR 5–1 WUR · WUR 3–2 FOR · FOR 6–0 WUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept

FORTUNA REGENSBURG

WWWDDL2–1 · 6–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

WÜRZBURGER FV

WWWDWD2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Kornburg	15	+14	27
3	Würzburger FV	14	+9	27
4	Gebenbach	14	+6	26
5	Eintracht Bamberg	14	+11	25
6	Bayern Hof	14	+8	23
7	Jahn Regensburg II	14	+6	23
8	Fortuna Regensburg	14	+9	21
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	14	+6	21
10	Stadeln	14	−3	20
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	14	−9	15
14	Ingolstadt II	14	−8	13
15	Weiden	14	−9	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	14	−17	10
18	ASV Neumarkt	14	−17	6