DJK Bamberg v Ammerthal prediction · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

DJK Bamberg 4–1 Ammerthal AMMERTHAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ammerthal win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.651

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ammerthal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: DJK Bamberg 35%, draw 25%, Ammerthal 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on DJK Bamberg v AmmerthalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

DJK Bamberg win35%

Draw25%

Ammerthal win40%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

DJK Bamberg

Ammerthal

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Last match: 18 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Ammerthal	15	−11	15
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ammerthal winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Ammerthal a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · DJK Bamberg v Ammerthal~~1.44 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 15~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ammerthal win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
DJK Bamberg win	35%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Ammerthal win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
DJK Bamberg or draw	60%	–	–
DJK Bamberg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Ammerthal clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.8 7.4 6.1 3.2 1 6.7 11.4 8.4 4.5 2 5.1 7.8 6.0 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+DJK Bamberg down, Ammerthal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 135 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

DJK Bamberg at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ammerthal away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for DJK Bamberg, 1.57 for Ammerthal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AMM 3–3 DJK · DJK 0–0 AMM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 12 Sept

DJK BAMBERG

WDDDLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

AMMERTHAL

LWWLDL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	15	+25	40
2	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
3	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
4	Kornburg	15	+14	27
5	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
6	Bayern Hof	15	+10	26
7	Gebenbach	15	+1	26
8	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	15	+6	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	15	−11	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	15	−19	6