Ammerthal v Cham prediction · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Ammerthal 0–2 Cham CHAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cham win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.289

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cham are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ammerthal 21%, draw 23%, Cham 56%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Ammerthal v ChamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ammerthal win21%

Draw23%

Cham win56%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundBayern Nord · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ammerthal

Cham

8Days since last match9

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Last match: 9 Oct · Oberliga - Bayern Nord

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
13	Ammerthal	14	−9	15

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cham winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Cham a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ammerthal v Cham~~1.07 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 37~~13 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ammerthal win	21%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Cham win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Ammerthal or draw	44%	–	–
Ammerthal clean sheet	15%	–	–
Cham clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.8 9.3 9.2 5.9 2.9 1 5.1 10.7 9.5 6.1 3.0 2 3.0 5.5 5.1 3.3 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ammerthal down, Cham across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,360 Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Bayern Nord matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.2% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ammerthal at home: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cham away: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Ammerthal, 1.91 for Cham. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 AMM · AMM 1–0 CHA · CHA 2–0 AMM · AMM 1–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Bayern Nord this season · since 4 Sept

AMMERTHAL

LLWWLD0–6 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

CHAM

WDWWWW4–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cham	14	+23	37
2	Eintracht Bamberg	15	+13	28
3	Würzburger FV	15	+9	28
4	Kornburg	15	+14	27
5	Jahn Regensburg II	15	+11	26
6	Bayern Hof	15	+10	26
7	Gebenbach	15	+1	26
8	Fortuna Regensburg	15	+9	22
9	Viktoria Aschaffenburg	15	+6	22
10	Stadeln	15	−3	21
11	Neudrossenfeld	15	−4	19
12	Großbardorf	15	−8	16
13	Ammerthal	14	−9	15
14	Weiden	15	−9	14
15	Ingolstadt II	15	−10	13
16	DJK Bamberg	15	−17	11
17	Nordlingen	15	−17	11
18	ASV Neumarkt	15	−19	6