Oberachern v Essingen prediction · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OberachernDrawEssingen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Oberachern 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Oberachern are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oberachern 51%, draw 24%, Essingen 25%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Oberachern v EssingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oberachern win51%

Draw24%

Essingen win25%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:30

RoundBaden-Württemberg · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oberachern

Essingen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oberachern winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Oberachern a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oberachern v Essingen~~1.84 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 29 v 15~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oberachern win	51%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Essingen win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Oberachern or draw	75%	–	–
Oberachern clean sheet	30%	–	–
Essingen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.8 5.0 3.6 1 8.0 11.2 6.3 2.6 2 7.9 9.4 5.7 2.3 3 4.9 5.8 3.5 4 2.3 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oberachern down, Essingen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,718 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 114 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oberachern at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Essingen away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Oberachern, 1.21 for Essingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESS 1–0 OBE · OBE 2–2 ESS · OBE 1–2 ESS · ESS 0–0 OBE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 19 Sept

OBERACHERN

DDWLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

ESSINGEN

LWLWWL1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	13	+17	29
2	Backnang	13	+17	28
3	FC 08 Villingen	13	+8	26
4	Reutlingen	13	+7	26
5	Bahlinger SC	13	+5	23
6	Young Boys Reutlingen	13	+9	22
7	FV Ravensburg	13	+9	19
8	Karlsruhe II	12	+1	19
9	1. FC Muhlhausen	12	−2	17
10	CFR Pforzheim	13	−3	17
11	FC Holzhausen	13	−3	17
12	Essingen	13	−5	15
13	TSV Singen	13	−8	14
14	Balingen	13	−3	13
15	FC Nöttingen	12	+7	12
16	Teningen	12	−11	12
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	12	−20	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	12	−25	3