Normannia Gmünd v Essingen prediction · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Normannia Gmünd 1–3 Essingen ESSINGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Essingen win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Essingen just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Normannia Gmünd 37%, draw 26%, Essingen 37%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Normannia Gmünd v EssingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Normannia Gmünd win37%

Draw26%

Essingen win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundBaden-Württemberg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Normannia Gmünd

Essingen

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Essingen	11	−5	12
18	Normannia Gmünd	11	−23	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · essingen winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Essingen a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Normannia Gmünd v Essingen~~1.50 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 12~~18 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Normannia Gmünd win	37%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Essingen win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Normannia Gmünd or draw	63%	–	–
Normannia Gmünd clean sheet	22%	–	–
Essingen clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 5.9 6.7 5.6 2.9 1 6.6 11.8 8.3 4.2 2 5.6 8.2 6.1 3.1 3 2.8 4.1 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Normannia Gmünd down, Essingen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,705 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Normannia Gmünd at home: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Essingen away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Normannia Gmünd, 1.51 for Essingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NOR 1–1 ESS · ESS 2–1 NOR · ESS 3–0 NOR · NOR 2–3 ESS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 9 Sept

NORMANNIA GMÜND

LLLLWL2–3 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–3

ESSINGEN

DDLWLW0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	11	+13	23
2	FC 08 Villingen	12	+6	23
3	Backnang	11	+13	22
4	Young Boys Reutlingen	11	+12	22
5	Reutlingen	11	+3	20
6	FV Ravensburg	12	+10	19
7	FC Holzhausen	11	+1	17
8	Bahlinger SC	11	0	17
9	CFR Pforzheim	12	−1	17
10	Karlsruhe II	11	−1	16
11	1. FC Muhlhausen	11	−2	16
12	FC Nöttingen	12	+7	12
13	Balingen	11	−1	12
14	Essingen	11	−5	12
15	Teningen	11	−9	12
16	TSV Singen	11	−6	11
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	11	−17	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	11	−23	3