Karlsruhe II v FC Nöttingen prediction · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Karlsruhe IIDrawFC Nöttingen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Nöttingen 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Nöttingen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karlsruhe II 32%, draw 21%, FC Nöttingen 47%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on Karlsruhe II v FC NöttingenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Karlsruhe II win32%

Draw21%

FC Nöttingen win47%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundBaden-Württemberg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karlsruhe II

FC Nöttingen

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Last match: 16 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Karlsruhe II	12	+1	19
15	FC Nöttingen	12	+7	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc nöttingen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make FC Nöttingen a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karlsruhe II v FC Nöttingen~~1.87 – 2.28

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~8 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karlsruhe II win	32%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
FC Nöttingen win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Karlsruhe II or draw	53%	–	–
Karlsruhe II clean sheet	11%	–	–
FC Nöttingen clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 2.3 3.2 4.2 3.1 1 2.5 7.3 7.5 5.7 3.3 2 2.8 6.2 6.9 5.2 3.0 3 3.9 4.3 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karlsruhe II down, FC Nöttingen across0–5 goals a side shown (95.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,713 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Karlsruhe II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Nöttingen away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Karlsruhe II, 2.28 for FC Nöttingen. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAR 1–5 FCN · FCN 4–0 KAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 13 Sept

KARLSRUHE II

LDWWWW1–2 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 4–2

FC NÖTTINGEN

LLLWWW3–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 10–0 · 3–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	12	+16	26
2	Backnang	12	+15	25
3	FC 08 Villingen	12	+6	23
4	Reutlingen	12	+6	23
5	Young Boys Reutlingen	12	+10	22
6	Bahlinger SC	12	+3	20
7	FV Ravensburg	12	+10	19
8	Karlsruhe II	12	+1	19
9	CFR Pforzheim	12	−1	17
10	1. FC Muhlhausen	12	−2	17
11	FC Holzhausen	13	−3	17
12	Essingen	12	−3	15
13	TSV Singen	13	−8	14
14	Balingen	12	−1	13
15	FC Nöttingen	12	+7	12
16	Teningen	12	−11	12
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	12	−20	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	12	−25	3