FC Nöttingen v CFR Pforzheim prediction · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

FC Nöttingen 4–1 CFR Pforzheim FC NÖTTINGEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Nöttingen win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.380

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Nöttingen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Nöttingen 50%, draw 20%, CFR Pforzheim 30%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%.

The AI’s read on FC Nöttingen v CFR PforzheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

FC Nöttingen win50%

Draw20%

CFR Pforzheim win30%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundBaden-Württemberg · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Nöttingen

CFR Pforzheim

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	CFR Pforzheim	11	+2	17
16	FC Nöttingen	11	+4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc nöttingen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make FC Nöttingen a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Nöttingen v CFR Pforzheim~~2.41 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 17~~16 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Nöttingen win

Published at 49%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Nöttingen win	50%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
CFR Pforzheim win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	76%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	61%	–	–
FC Nöttingen or draw	70%	–	–
FC Nöttingen clean sheet	16%	–	–
CFR Pforzheim clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.4%

0123450 2.0 2.2 2.5 1 3.0 6.8 5.8 3.6 2 4.1 7.4 6.8 4.2 3 3.3 5.9 5.4 3.3 4 3.6 3.3 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Nöttingen down, CFR Pforzheim across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,703 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 99 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Nöttingen at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). CFR Pforzheim away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for FC Nöttingen, 1.85 for CFR Pforzheim. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCN 0–2 CFR · CFR 0–0 FCN · CFR 3–1 FCN · FCN 4–0 CFR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 9 Sept

FC NÖTTINGEN

LLLLWW0–1 · 3–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 10–0 · 3–1

CFR PFORZHEIM

LLLWLW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	11	+13	23
2	FC 08 Villingen	11	+11	23
3	Backnang	11	+13	22
4	Young Boys Reutlingen	11	+12	22
5	Reutlingen	11	+3	20
6	CFR Pforzheim	11	+2	17
7	FC Holzhausen	11	+1	17
8	Bahlinger SC	11	0	17
9	FV Ravensburg	11	+5	16
10	Karlsruhe II	11	−1	16
11	1. FC Muhlhausen	11	−2	16
12	Balingen	11	−1	12
13	Essingen	11	−5	12
14	Teningen	11	−9	12
15	TSV Singen	11	−6	11
16	FC Nöttingen	11	+4	9
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	11	−17	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	11	−23	3