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Essingen v Reutlingen

Essingen

3–1Full time

Reutlingen

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Essingen 3–1 Reutlingen REUTLINGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Reutlingen win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.693

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Essingen win33%

Draw27%

Reutlingen win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · reutlingen winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Reutlingen a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Essingen win	33%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Reutlingen win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Essingen or draw	59%	–	–
Essingen clean sheet	23%	–	–
Reutlingen clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.2 8.3 6.8 3.4 1 7.2 12.5 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.6 5.6 2.8 3 2.3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Essingen down, Reutlingen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 91 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Essingen at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Reutlingen away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Essingen, 1.49 for Reutlingen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESS 1–2 REU · REU 3–0 ESS · ESS 2–1 REU · REU 0–1 ESS

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

ESSINGEN

LDDLWL0–4 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

REUTLINGEN

WLWDLD3–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	10	+14	23
2	Backnang	10	+13	21
3	FC 08 Villingen	10	+10	20
4	Reutlingen	10	+5	20
5	Young Boys Reutlingen	10	+10	19
6	FC Holzhausen	11	+1	17
7	FV Ravensburg	10	+7	16
8	1. FC Muhlhausen	10	−1	16
9	CFR Pforzheim	10	+1	14
10	Bahlinger SC	10	−1	14
11	Karlsruhe II	10	−2	13
12	Balingen	11	−1	12
13	Teningen	10	−8	12
14	TSV Singen	10	−6	10
15	Essingen	10	−7	9
16	Türkspor Neckarsulm	10	−16	9
17	FC Nöttingen	10	+2	6
18	Normannia Gmünd	10	−21	3