Essingen v Backnang prediction · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Essingen 3–5 Backnang BACKNANG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Backnang win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.592

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Backnang just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Essingen 37%, draw 26%, Backnang 38%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Essingen v BacknangBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Essingen win37%

Draw26%

Backnang win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundBaden-Württemberg · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Essingen

Backnang

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Backnang	12	+15	25
12	Essingen	12	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · backnang winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Backnang a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Essingen v Backnang~~1.53 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 15 v 25~~12 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Essingen win	37%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Backnang win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Essingen or draw	62%	–	–
Essingen clean sheet	22%	–	–
Backnang clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.7 6.3 5.5 2.9 1 6.2 11.6 8.2 4.3 2 5.4 8.2 6.3 3.3 3 2.8 4.2 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Essingen down, Backnang across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,713 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.5% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Essingen at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Backnang away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Essingen, 1.55 for Backnang. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ESS 2–1 BAC · BAC 2–3 ESS · BAC 1–2 ESS · ESS 2–1 BAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg this season · since 12 Sept

ESSINGEN

DLWLWW2–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–1

BACKNANG

DDDWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	12	+16	26
2	Backnang	12	+15	25
3	FC 08 Villingen	12	+6	23
4	Reutlingen	12	+6	23
5	Young Boys Reutlingen	12	+10	22
6	Bahlinger SC	12	+3	20
7	FV Ravensburg	12	+10	19
8	Karlsruhe II	12	+1	19
9	CFR Pforzheim	12	−1	17
10	1. FC Muhlhausen	12	−2	17
11	FC Holzhausen	13	−3	17
12	Essingen	12	−3	15
13	TSV Singen	13	−8	14
14	Balingen	12	−1	13
15	FC Nöttingen	12	+7	12
16	Teningen	12	−11	12
17	Türkspor Neckarsulm	12	−20	9
18	Normannia Gmünd	12	−25	3