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Balingen v FC Holzhausen

Balingen

1–3Full time

FC Holzhausen

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Balingen 1–3 FC Holzhausen BALINGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Balingen win~~53%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.907

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.622

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Balingen win53%

Draw23%

FC Holzhausen win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 18:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · balingen winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

53% The market40%

Us53%

~~Market~~40%

We make Balingen a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · balingen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Balingen win	53%	40%	+12
Draw	23%	23%	0
FC Holzhausen win	24%	36%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	0
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	42%	0
Balingen or draw	76%	64%	+12
Balingen clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Holzhausen clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.7 4.2 3.2 1 6.9 10.2 6.1 2.7 2 7.4 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 4.9 6.1 3.9 4 2.5 3.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Balingen down, FC Holzhausen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,694 Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.0% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Balingen at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Holzhausen away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Balingen, 1.29 for FC Holzhausen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

BALINGEN

WDDWDL3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

FC HOLZHAUSEN

WLLWDL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oberachern	10	+14	23
2	Backnang	10	+13	21
3	FC 08 Villingen	10	+10	20
4	Reutlingen	10	+5	20
5	Young Boys Reutlingen	10	+10	19
6	FV Ravensburg	10	+7	16
7	1. FC Muhlhausen	10	−1	16
8	CFR Pforzheim	10	+1	14
9	Bahlinger SC	10	−1	14
10	FC Holzhausen	10	−1	14
11	Karlsruhe II	10	−2	13
12	Balingen	10	+1	12
13	Teningen	10	−8	12
14	TSV Singen	10	−6	10
15	Essingen	10	−7	9
16	Türkspor Neckarsulm	10	−16	9
17	FC Nöttingen	10	+2	6
18	Normannia Gmünd	10	−21	3