Werder Bremen W v SC Freiburg W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Werder Bremen WDrawSC Freiburg W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Werder Bremen W 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Werder Bremen W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Werder Bremen W 47%, draw 24%, SC Freiburg W 28%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Werder Bremen W v SC Freiburg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Werder Bremen W win47%

Draw24%

SC Freiburg W win28%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueWeserstadion Platz 11

RefereeSina Diekmann

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Werder Bremen W

SC Freiburg W

23Days since last match9

Last match: 2 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 16 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · werder bremen w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market56%

Us47%

~~Market~~56%

We make Werder Bremen W a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Werder Bremen W v SC Freiburg W~~1.68 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 24 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 10~~6 v 8

~~The market · Werder Bremen W win~~56% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Werder Bremen W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Werder Bremen W win	47%	56%	−9
Draw	24%	23%	+1
SC Freiburg W win	28%	21%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	80%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Werder Bremen W or draw	72%	79%	−7
Werder Bremen W clean sheet	30%	–	–
SC Freiburg W clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 6.7 4.3 1 9.0 11.1 6.8 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.5 2.4 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Werder Bremen W down, SC Freiburg W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 759 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Werder Bremen W at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). SC Freiburg W away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Werder Bremen W, 1.24 for SC Freiburg W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCF 3–0 WER · WER 1–1 SCF · SCF 3–2 WER · WER 0–3 SCF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 24 Aug

WERDER BREMEN W

WWLWDL2–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3

SC FREIBURG W

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	8	+22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	8	+18	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	8	+1	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	7	−9	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0