VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

VfL Wolfsburg W 3–0 FC Koln W VFL WOLFSBURG W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfL Wolfsburg W win~~70%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.133

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.126

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfL Wolfsburg W win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: VfL Wolfsburg W was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–16–14
1′KICK-OFF VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Laura Vogt · FC Koln W
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 70% at kick-off, 60% now
38′We published VfL Wolfsburg W at 70%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–11–4
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' VfL Wolfsburg W 1–0 FC Koln W
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 70% at kick-off, 85% now
39′38′: Ella Peddemors on the scoresheet for VfL Wolfsburg W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–11–4
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Janina Minge · VfL Wolfsburg W
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Amelie Claire Bohnen · FC Koln W
45′HALF-TIME VfL Wolfsburg W 1–0 FC Koln W
46′SECOND HALF VfL Wolfsburg W 1–0 FC Koln W
59′We published VfL Wolfsburg W at 70%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Carlotta Imping · FC Koln W
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' VfL Wolfsburg W 2–0 FC Koln W
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 70% at kick-off, 97% now
60′VfL Wolfsburg W ahead on 59′ through Ella Peddemors. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
63′We published VfL Wolfsburg W at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' VfL Wolfsburg W 3–0 FC Koln W
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
64′Camilla Kuver scores for VfL Wolfsburg W on 62′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Katharina Piljic · Off: Janina Minge
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Cora Zicai · Off: Kessya Bussy
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Koln W · On: Laura Donhauser · Off: Laura Feiersinger
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Koln W · On: Weronika Zawistowska · Off: Lydia Nunes Martins Andrade
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Joelle Wedemeyer · Off: Thea Bjelde
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Cecilie Fløe Nielsen · Off: Lara Prasnikar
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Koln W · On: Kathrin Hendrich · Off: Amelie Claire Bohnen
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Kathrin Hendrich · FC Koln W
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: M. Alber · Off: Svenja Huth
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Cora Zicai · VfL Wolfsburg W
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Koln W · On: Julia Schiffarth · Off: Carlotta Imping
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lieske Carleer · VfL Wolfsburg W
FTFULL TIME VfL Wolfsburg W 3–0 FC Koln W
FTVfL Wolfsburg W 3–0 FC Koln W · VfL Wolfsburg W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VfL Wolfsburg W 70%, draw 16%, FC Koln W 14%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg W win70%

Draw16%

FC Koln W win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAOK Stadion

RefereeJulia Boike

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg W

4-1-4-1

FC Koln W

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VfL Wolfsburg W

FC Koln W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	7	+15	18
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg W

4-1-4-1

1 S. Johannes

2 T. Bjelde

3 L. Carleer

16 C. Küver

39 S. Linder

6 J. Minge

10 S. Huth

19 K. Bussy

5 E. Peddemors

8 L. Lattwein

9 L. Prašnikar

Coach · S. Lerch

Substitutes

13 · Cecilie Fløe Nielsen

23 · L. Bogaert

18 · M. Alber

4 · S. Kleinherne

17 · K. Piljić

21 · M. Tufeković

14 · S. Vallotto

24 · J. Wedemeyer

28 · C. Zicai

FC Koln W

3-5-2

1 L. Schmitz

5 C. Degen

15 A. Bohnen

33 M. Hegering

14 C. Imping

27 L. Feiersinger

8 L. Vogt

20 C. Elsen

29 V. Leimenstoll

9 P. Bremer

17 L. Andrade

Coach · Britta Carlson

Substitutes

36 · Maja Weber

6 · Jil Schäfer

22 · Julia Schiffarth

35 · P. Nelles

4 · K. Hendrich

25 · L. Donhauser

10 · W. Zawistowska

Our number · vfl wolfsburg w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

70% The market71%

Us70%

~~Market~~71%

We make VfL Wolfsburg W a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · VfL Wolfsburg W v FC Koln W~~2.67 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~2 v 5

~~The market · VfL Wolfsburg W win~~71% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfL Wolfsburg W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
VfL Wolfsburg W win	70%	71%	−1
Draw	16%	17%	−1
FC Koln W win	14%	12%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	72%	68%	+4
Both teams to score	61%	56%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
VfL Wolfsburg W or draw	86%	88%	−2
VfL Wolfsburg W clean sheet	34%	–	–
FC Koln W clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.8 2.6 1 6.4 6.9 3.7 2 8.3 8.7 4.7 3 7.3 7.6 4.1 4 4.9 5.1 2.8 5 2.7 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+VfL Wolfsburg W down, FC Koln W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 759 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 67.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

VfL Wolfsburg W at home: 2.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Koln W away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.67 goals for VfL Wolfsburg W, 1.09 for FC Koln W. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 10:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VFL 2–1 FCK · FCK 1–2 VFL · FCK 0–0 VFL · VFL 5–1 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 28 Aug

VFL WOLFSBURG W

WWWLWW2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 5–0

FC KOLN W

WWWLLW1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	8	+22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	7	+15	18
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	7	−9	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0