Union Berlin W v Nürnberg W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Union Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W UNION BERLIN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Union Berlin W win~~63%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.271

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Berlin W win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Berlin W was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–18–19
1′KICK-OFF Union Berlin W v Nürnberg W
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Lina Hausicke · Union Berlin W
32′We published Union Berlin W at 63%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Union Berlin W 1–0 Nürnberg W
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Union Berlin W win: 63% at kick-off, 80% now
34′Union Berlin W ahead on 32′ through Eileen campbell. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–7
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Union Berlin W · On: Jella Veit · Off: Lina Hausicke
40′Goals are coming at about the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 53–27–20
40′Lara Meroni scores for Nürnberg W on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–27–20
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Union Berlin W 1–1 Nürnberg W
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Union Berlin W win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Union Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Union Berlin W win: 63% at kick-off, 80% now
44′43′: Nele Bauereisen on the scoresheet for Union Berlin W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–14–6
45′HALF-TIME Union Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Eileen campbell · Union Berlin W
46′SECOND HALF Union Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Nürnberg W · On: charline coutel · Off: Jonna Brengel
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Nürnberg W · On: Fany Proniez · Off: Nastassja Lein
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' charline coutel · Nürnberg W
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Union Berlin W win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Emoke Patricia Papai · Nürnberg W
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Laura miller · Nürnberg W
72′We published Union Berlin W at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Union Berlin W · On: Weidauer Sophie · Off: Naika Reissner
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Union Berlin W · On: Lisanne Grawe · Off: lia kamber
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nürnberg W · On: Keira bednorz · Off: Emoke Patricia Papai
81′We published Union Berlin W at 63%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Union Berlin W win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nürnberg W · On: Julia Pollak · Off: Aleksandra Lobanova
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nürnberg W · On: Selma Licina · Off: Laura miller
88′We published Union Berlin W at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Union Berlin W · On: leela egli · Off: Nele Bauereisen
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Union Berlin W · On: Judith Steinert · Off: Judit Pujols Parera
FTFULL TIME Union Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W
FTUnion Berlin W 2–1 Nürnberg W · Union Berlin W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Berlin W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Berlin W 63%, draw 18%, Nürnberg W 19%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Union Berlin W v Nürnberg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Union Berlin W win63%

Draw18%

Nürnberg W win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueAn der Alten Försterei

RefereeLara Wolf

Line-ups

Union Berlin W

4-4-2

Nürnberg W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Berlin W

Nürnberg W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union Berlin W

4-4-2

28 N. Böhi

2 T. Schneider

26 A. Tysiak

19 S. Steuerwald

5 Judit Pujols

77 J. Janssens

32 L. Hausicke

41 L. Kamber

42 N. Reissner

23 N. Bauereisen

10 E. Campbell

Coach · Ailien Poese

Substitutes

21 · A. Weiß

27 · L. Egli

6 · L. Gräwe

11 · D. Orschmann

40 · S. Schulz

18 · L. Seifert

17 · J. Steinert

30 · J. Veit

9 · S. Weidauer

Nürnberg W

4-4-2

1 L. Romero

17 M. Bleil

4 A. Lobanova

2 L. Varley

19 S. Homann

24 N. Lein

10 J. Brengel

9 L. Miller

11 L. Meroni

15 E. Papai

99 L. Lapassouse

Coach · Thomas Oostendorp

Substitutes

28 · M. Seguin

3 · F. Proniez

22 · J. Pollak

7 · S. Licina

5 · C. Fröhlich

77 · Mafalda Barbóz

6 · C. Coutel

21 · K. Bednorz

33 · R. Adamczyk

Our number · union berlin w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market57%

Us63%

~~Market~~57%

We make Union Berlin W a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Berlin W v Nürnberg W~~2.64 – 1.38

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~10 v 13

~~The market · Union Berlin W win~~57% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Berlin W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Berlin W win	63%	57%	+6
Draw	18%	22%	−4
Nürnberg W win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	75%	66%	+9
Both teams to score	68%	63%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	56%	47%	+9
Union Berlin W or draw	81%	79%	+2
Union Berlin W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Nürnberg W clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.2 2.7 1 5.0 6.8 4.6 2.2 2 6.3 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 5.3 7.0 4.8 2.2 4 3.5 4.6 3.1 5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Berlin W down, Nürnberg W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 755 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Berlin W at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nürnberg W away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.64 goals for Union Berlin W, 1.38 for Nürnberg W. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:35. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NUR 1–2 UNI · UNI 1–1 NUR · UNI 4–0 NUR · NUR 0–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug

UNION BERLIN W

LLLLWW1–4 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 4–0

NÜRNBERG W

LDDLLL2–8 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12
6	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
7	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0