SC Freiburg W v RB Leipzig W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01

SC Freiburg W 0–3 RB Leipzig W SC FREIBURG W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SC Freiburg W win~~48%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SC Freiburg W win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SC Freiburg W 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF SC Freiburg W v RB Leipzig W
18′🟥 RED CARD · 18' Julia Stierli · SC Freiburg W
19′SC Freiburg W are down to ten from 18′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 45–27–28
31′RB Leipzig W have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 43–30–27
42′12 shots for RB Leipzig W, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–34–26
45′HALF-TIME SC Freiburg W 0–0 RB Leipzig W
46′SECOND HALF SC Freiburg W 0–0 RB Leipzig W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' SC Freiburg W · On: Luca Emily Birkholz · Off: Selina Vobian
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' SC Freiburg W win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig W · On: Sandra Starke · Off: Zenia Mertens
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig W · On: charlotte hulst · Off: Marleen schimmer
52′We said SC Freiburg W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–39–24
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' A. Garden · RB Leipzig W
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was SC Freiburg W win 35%)
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 35–41–24
57′We said SC Freiburg W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
58′RB Leipzig W have had 17 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 34–44–23
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' RB Leipzig W · On: Nikée Dianá van Dijk · Off: E. Pfister
63′20 shots for RB Leipzig W, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 31–48–21
65′We said SC Freiburg W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–20
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' SC Freiburg W win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
69′We said SC Freiburg W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 0–1 · 5–22–73
69′RB Leipzig W ahead on 68′ through A. Garden. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–22–73
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' SC Freiburg W 0–1 RB Leipzig W
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' SC Freiburg W win: 48% at kick-off, 5% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' RB Leipzig W win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 22%)
71′We said SC Freiburg W at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' RB Leipzig W · On: Therese Simonsson · Off: A. Garden
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SC Freiburg W · On: Amira Arfaoui · Off: Alina Axtmann
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' SC Freiburg W · On: S. Seghir · Off: Carina Brunold
79′Nikée Dianá van Dijk scores for RB Leipzig W on 78′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' SC Freiburg W 0–2 RB Leipzig W
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' SC Freiburg W
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' RB Leipzig W · On: Linde Anna Veefkind · Off: Andrea Norheim
85′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' SC Freiburg W 0–3 RB Leipzig W
86′84′: Nikée Dianá van Dijk on the scoresheet for RB Leipzig W, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' SC Freiburg W · On: Borbála Dóra Vincze · Off: Alena Bienz
FTFULL TIME SC Freiburg W 0–3 RB Leipzig W
FTSC Freiburg W 0–3 RB Leipzig W · SC Freiburg W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SC Freiburg W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SC Freiburg W 48%, draw 23%, RB Leipzig W 29%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on SC Freiburg W v RB Leipzig WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

SC Freiburg W win48%

Draw23%

RB Leipzig W win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSchwarzwald-Stadion

RefereeDaniela Kottmann

Line-ups

SC Freiburg W

4-2-3-1

RB Leipzig W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SC Freiburg W

RB Leipzig W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	SC Freiburg W	6	+1	10
9	RB Leipzig W	6	+1	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg W

4-2-3-1

38 A. Reimann

2 L. Karl

3 A. Axtmann

5 J. Stierli

22 L. Kolb

6 N. Ojukwu

30 İlayda Açıkgöz

8 A. Bienz

15 Maj Schneider

10 S. Vobian

14 C. Brunold

Coach · Edmond Kapllani

Substitutes

13 · N. Scherer

35 · Luisa Jansen

23 · L. Birkholz

33 · L. Barth

17 · A. Arfaoui

29 · B. D. Vincze

25 · W. Simmen

9 · S. Seghir

34 · Pauline Ihme

RB Leipzig W

4-3-3

1 E. Herzog

12 J. Mathys

3 A. Norheim

4 Z. Mertens

22 A. Tuin

8 Emilía Kiær Ásgeirsdóttir

24 N. Dudek

18 S. Pusztai

20 E. Pfister

17 D. Boboy

14 M. Schimmer

Coach · J. Stephan

Substitutes

7 · N. Van Dijk

71 · A. Waldbillig

25 · L. Veefkind

13 · S. Starke

27 · T. Simonsson

23 · S. Lindner

77 · C. Hulst

Our number · sc freiburg w winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

48% The market34%

Us48%

~~Market~~34%

We make SC Freiburg W a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SC Freiburg W v RB Leipzig W~~1.80 – 1.33

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 7~~6 v 9

~~The market · SC Freiburg W win~~34% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SC Freiburg W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SC Freiburg W win	48%	34%	+14
Draw	23%	26%	−3
RB Leipzig W win	29%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
SC Freiburg W or draw	71%	60%	+11
SC Freiburg W clean sheet	27%	–	–
RB Leipzig W clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 5.9 4.0 1 7.9 10.4 6.8 3.1 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.7 3 4.2 5.4 3.5 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SC Freiburg W down, RB Leipzig W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 752 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SC Freiburg W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). RB Leipzig W away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for SC Freiburg W, 1.33 for RB Leipzig W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RBL 2–0 SCF · SCF 2–4 RBL · RBL 1–1 SCF · SCF 4–1 RBL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 23 Aug

SC FREIBURG W

DWLWLW1–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

RB LEIPZIG W

LLDWLW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	6	+5	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	6	+3	12
5	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
6	SC Freiburg W	6	+1	10
7	FC Koln W	6	+2	9
8	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
9	RB Leipzig W	6	+1	7
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	6	+1	5
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0