RB Leipzig W v Bayern Munich W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

RB Leipzig W 1–5 Bayern Munich W BAYERN MUNICH W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern Munich W win~~79%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.068

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.052

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern Munich W win at 79%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayern Munich W 79% before kick-off, 79% now. 0–0 · 8–14–79
1′KICK-OFF RB Leipzig W v Bayern Munich W
8′We said Bayern Munich W at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–1 · 2–6–92
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' RB Leipzig W 0–1 Bayern Munich W
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Bayern Munich W win: 79% at kick-off, 92% now
9′Bayern Munich W score on 8′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–6–92
14′We said Bayern Munich W at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' RB Leipzig W 0–2 Bayern Munich W
18′Bayern Munich W ahead on 14′ through an own goal by Zenia Mertens. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
41′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′HALF-TIME RB Leipzig W 0–2 Bayern Munich W
46′SECOND HALF RB Leipzig W 0–2 Bayern Munich W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig W · On: Nikée Dianá van Dijk · Off: Charlotte Hulst
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' RB Leipzig W · On: Marleen Schimmer · Off: Therese Simonsson
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Bayern Munich W win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Emilía Kiær Ásgeirsdóttir · RB Leipzig W
56′We said Bayern Munich W at 79% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' RB Leipzig W 0–3 Bayern Munich W
57′Klara Buhl scores for Bayern Munich W on 55′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Zenia Mertens · RB Leipzig W
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayern Munich W · On: Sarah Mattner Trembleau · Off: Katharina Naschenweng
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayern Munich W · On: Vanessa Gilles · Off: Magdalena Eriksson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Bayern Munich W · On: Kassandra Potsi · Off: Sophie Proost
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' RB Leipzig W · On: Linde Anna Veefkind · Off: Sandra Starke
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Bayern Munich W · On: Edna Imade · Off: Momoko Tanikawa
74′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Bayern Munich W · On: Linda Dallmann · Off: Pernille Harder
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' RB Leipzig W 0–4 Bayern Munich W
75′73′: Klara Buhl on the scoresheet for Bayern Munich W, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
76′Bayern Munich W are down to ten from 75′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–4 · 0–0–100
76′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Ena Mahmutovic · Bayern Munich W
78′5 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' RB Leipzig W 1–4 Bayern Munich W
79′RB Leipzig W pull one back on 78′ through Marleen Schimmer. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
86′Edna Imade scores for Bayern Munich W on 85′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
86′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' RB Leipzig W 1–5 Bayern Munich W · Edna Imade
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Nikoline Hougaard Dudek · RB Leipzig W
FTFULL TIME RB Leipzig W 1–5 Bayern Munich W
FTRB Leipzig W 1–5 Bayern Munich W · Bayern Munich W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern Munich W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RB Leipzig W 8%, draw 13%, Bayern Munich W 79%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on RB Leipzig W v Bayern Munich WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

RB Leipzig W win8%

Draw13%

Bayern Munich W win79%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 8

VenueRB-Training Center Cottaweg

RefereeLevke Scholz

Line-ups

RB Leipzig W

4-4-2

Bayern Munich W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RB Leipzig W

Bayern Munich W

7Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 19 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig W

4-4-2

1 E. Herzog

12 J. Mathys

24 N. Dudek

4 Z. Mertens

22 A. Tuin

8 Emilía Kiær Ásgeirsdóttir

18 S. Pusztai

13 S. Starke

77 C. Hulst

27 T. Simonsson

17 D. Boboy

Coach · J. Stephan

Substitutes

23 · S. Lindner

20 · E. Pfister

14 · M. Schimmer

25 · L. Veefkind

71 · Aude Waldbillig

7 · N. Van Dijk

3 · A. Norheim

Bayern Munich W

4-2-3-1

1 E. Mahmutovic

20 F. Kett

4 G. Viggósdóttir

5 M. Eriksson

19 K. Naschenweng

18 M. Tanikawa

15 B. Amani

23 S. Proost

14 A. Şehitler

17 K. Bühl

21 P. Harder

Coach · José Barcala

Substitutes

6 · Kassandra Potsi

25 · S. Zadrazil

22 · R. van Eijk

11 · S. Mattner-Trembleau

2 · V. Gilles

28 · B. Dunst

10 · L. Dallmann

3 · S. Ballisager

29 · E. Imade

Our number · bayern munich w winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

79% The market82%

Us79%

~~Market~~82%

We make Bayern Munich W a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RB Leipzig W v Bayern Munich W~~0.73 – 2.80

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 21~~6 v 1

~~The market · Bayern Munich W win~~82% · ours 79%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern Munich W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 82% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RB Leipzig W win	8%	7%	+1
Draw	13%	12%	+1
Bayern Munich W win	79%	82%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
RB Leipzig W or draw	21%	18%	+3
RB Leipzig W clean sheet	7%	–	–
Bayern Munich W clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.5%

0123450 3.4 8.5 11.5 10.4 7.4 4.31 2.2 6.1 8.0 7.2 5.0 2.92 2.3 3.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RB Leipzig W down, Bayern Munich W across0–5 goals a side shown (92.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 758 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RB Leipzig W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bayern Munich W away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for RB Leipzig W, 2.80 for Bayern Munich W. Most likely score 0–2.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAY 3–0 RBL · RBL 0–3 BAY · RBL 0–1 BAY · BAY 6–2 RBL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug

RB LEIPZIG W

LDWLWW0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 5–0 · 3–0

BAYERN MUNICH W

WWWWWW2–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	7	+18	21
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	7	+15	18
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12
6	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
7	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	7	−9	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0