Nürnberg W v Bayer Leverkusen W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nürnberg WDrawBayer Leverkusen W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bayer Leverkusen W 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nürnberg W 17%, draw 18%, Bayer Leverkusen W 65%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Nürnberg W v Bayer Leverkusen WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nürnberg W win17%

Draw18%

Bayer Leverkusen W win65%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueMax-Morlock-Stadion

RefereeNaemi Breier

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nürnberg W

Bayer Leverkusen W

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayer leverkusen w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

65% The market70%

Us65%

~~Market~~70%

We make Bayer Leverkusen W a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nürnberg W v Bayer Leverkusen W~~1.15 – 2.48

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 13~~13 v 4

~~The market · Bayer Leverkusen W win~~70% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nürnberg W win	17%	12%	+5
Draw	18%	18%	0
Bayer Leverkusen W win	65%	70%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	69%	62%	+7
Both teams to score	61%	52%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	87%	81%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	49%	42%	+7
Nürnberg W or draw	35%	30%	+5
Nürnberg W clean sheet	9%	–	–
Bayer Leverkusen W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.1 6.7 8.0 6.5 4.1 2.21 3.2 7.7 8.9 7.2 4.5 2.42 4.4 5.2 4.1 2.6 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nürnberg W down, Bayer Leverkusen W across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 761 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nürnberg W at home: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bayer Leverkusen W away: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Nürnberg W, 2.48 for Bayer Leverkusen W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAY 4–0 NUR · NUR 0–1 BAY · NUR 1–2 BAY · BAY 6–0 NUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 30 Aug

NÜRNBERG W

DDLLLL1–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 1–2

BAYER LEVERKUSEN W

LWLWWD1–2 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	8	+22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	8	+18	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	8	+1	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	7	−9	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0