Mainz 05 W v VfL Wolfsburg W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:01

Mainz 05 W 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg W VFL WOLFSBURG W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said VfL Wolfsburg W win~~82%

~~The market said~~88%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.051

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.022

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said VfL Wolfsburg W win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: VfL Wolfsburg W 82% before kick-off, 81% now. 0–0 · 8–11–81
1′KICK-OFF Mainz 05 W v VfL Wolfsburg W
32′VfL Wolfsburg W have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–17–73
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' smilla vallotto · VfL Wolfsburg W
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 82% at kick-off, 72% now
35′VfL Wolfsburg W have had 9 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 10–18–72
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Mainz 05 W 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg W
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 82% at kick-off, 90% now
37′36′: Ella Peddemors on the scoresheet for VfL Wolfsburg W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–90
45′VfL Wolfsburg W ahead on 45′ through Ella Peddemors. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
45′HALF-TIME Mainz 05 W 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg W
46′We said VfL Wolfsburg W at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Mainz 05 W 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' VfL Wolfsburg W win: 82% at kick-off, 98% now
46′SECOND HALF Mainz 05 W 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg W
47′The goal count is tracking the 4.6 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
50′Anny Kerim-Lindland scores for VfL Wolfsburg W on 48′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
50′We said VfL Wolfsburg W at 82% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
50′⚽ GOAL · 48' Mainz 05 W 0–3 VfL Wolfsburg W · Anny Kerim-Lindland
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Mainz 05 W 0–4 VfL Wolfsburg W
52′50′: Svenja Huth on the scoresheet for VfL Wolfsburg W, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Katharina Piljic · Off: Janina Minge
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Lena Lattwein · Off: smilla vallotto
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mainz 05 W · On: paula flach · Off: Maja Pageler
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mainz 05 W · On: Leonie Stöhr · Off: Mattson Strickler
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Mainz 05 W · On: Lara Martin · Off: Rio Takizawa
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Kessya Bussy · Off: Cora Zicai
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Lieske Carleer · Off: Camilla Kuver
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' kara bathmann · Mainz 05 W
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Mainz 05 W · On: Chiara·Loos · Off: Vital kats
78′5 goals already, more than the 4.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Mainz 05 W 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg W
81′VfL Wolfsburg W ahead on 77′ through Kessya Bussy. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' VfL Wolfsburg W · On: Lou Bogaert · Off: Sarai Linder
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Mainz 05 W · On: Suguri Hashitani · Off: kara bathmann
FTFULL TIME Mainz 05 W 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg W
FTMainz 05 W 0–5 VfL Wolfsburg W · VfL Wolfsburg W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VfL Wolfsburg W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mainz 05 W 8%, draw 11%, VfL Wolfsburg W 82%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Mainz 05 W v VfL Wolfsburg WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mainz 05 W win8%

Draw11%

VfL Wolfsburg W win82%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBruchwegstadion

RefereeAngelika Soder

Line-ups

Mainz 05 W

5-3-2

VfL Wolfsburg W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mainz 05 W

VfL Wolfsburg W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mainz 05 W

5-3-2

33 Marisa Schon

4 K. Bathmann

3 M. Georgieva

14 Yurina Imai

9 J. Berg

37 M. L. Pageler

8 R. Takizawa

7 G. Fetaj

6 A. Kurishima

30 V. Kats

13 M. Strickler

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · P. Flach

27 · N. Anstatt

32 · Sophia Gonzalez

25 · S. Hashitani

11 · Nicola Hauk

10 · C. Loos

26 · L. Martin

31 · L. Stohr

VfL Wolfsburg W

4-3-3

1 S. Johannes

2 T. Bjelde

4 S. Kleinherne

16 C. Küver

39 S. Linder

10 S. Huth

14 S. Vallotto

6 J. Minge

5 E. Peddemors

38 A. Kerim-Lindland

28 C. Zicai

Coach · S. Lerch

Substitutes

19 · K. Bussy

3 · L. Carleer

8 · L. Lattwein

17 · K. Piljić

9 · L. Prašnikar

21 · M. Tufeković

24 · J. Wedemeyer

23 · L. Bogaert

18 · M. Alber

Our number · vfl wolfsburg w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

82% The market88%

Us82%

~~Market~~88%

We make VfL Wolfsburg W an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–3.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mainz 05 W v VfL Wolfsburg W~~1.00 – 3.59

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 0 v 15~~14 v 2

~~The market · VfL Wolfsburg W win~~88% · ours 82%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · VfL Wolfsburg W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mainz 05 W win	8%	4%	+4
Draw	11%	7%	+4
VfL Wolfsburg W win	82%	88%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	45%	+15
Over 1.5 goals	93%	89%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	65%	64%	+1
Mainz 05 W or draw	18%	12%	+6
Mainz 05 W clean sheet	4%	–	–
VfL Wolfsburg W clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 7.5%

0123450 4.2 6.8 7.5 6.5 4.71 4.2 6.6 7.1 6.1 4.32 2.1 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.13 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mainz 05 W down, VfL Wolfsburg W across0–5 goals a side shown (82.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 755 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Mainz 05 W at home: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 3). VfL Wolfsburg W away: 3.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Mainz 05 W, 3.59 for VfL Wolfsburg W. Most likely score 0–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

MAINZ 05 W

LLLLLL1–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–5

VFL WOLFSBURG W

WWWWLW8–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12
6	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
7	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0