Hamburger SV W v Union Berlin W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Hamburger SV WDrawUnion Berlin W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Union Berlin W 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Berlin W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hamburger SV W 34%, draw 24%, Union Berlin W 42%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Hamburger SV W v Union Berlin WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Hamburger SV W win34%

Draw24%

Union Berlin W win42%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueVolksparkstadion

RefereeAngelika Soder

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hamburger SV W

Union Berlin W

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union berlin w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make Union Berlin W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hamburger SV W v Union Berlin W~~1.46 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~12 v 9

~~The market · Union Berlin W win~~43% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Berlin W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hamburger SV W win	34%	30%	+4
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Union Berlin W win	42%	43%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	60%	54%	+6
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	38%	34%	+4
Hamburger SV W or draw	58%	57%	+1
Hamburger SV W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Union Berlin W clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.0 7.3 6.1 3.4 1 6.4 10.7 8.5 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.5 6.1 3.4 3 2.3 3.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hamburger SV W down, Union Berlin W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 761 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.6% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hamburger SV W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Union Berlin W away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Hamburger SV W, 1.66 for Union Berlin W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~HAM 0–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 HAM · HAM 1–2 UNI · UNI 2–2 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

HAMBURGER SV W

LDLWLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

UNION BERLIN W

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	8	+22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	8	+18	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	8	+8	17
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	8	+1	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	8	−12	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0