FC Koln W v Hamburger SV W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

FC Koln W 3–1 Hamburger SV W FC KOLN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Koln W win~~51%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.358

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Koln W win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Koln W was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF FC Koln W v Hamburger SV W
16′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Celina Degen · FC Koln W
19′We published FC Koln W at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' FC Koln W 1–0 Hamburger SV W
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' FC Koln W win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
20′Pauline Bremer scores for FC Koln W on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
21′Pauline Bremer scores for FC Koln W on 19′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
25′We published FC Koln W at 51%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–2
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' FC Koln W 2–0 Hamburger SV W
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' FC Koln W win: 51% at kick-off, 93% now
26′26′: Pauline Bremer on the scoresheet for FC Koln W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
27′25′: Pauline Bremer on the scoresheet for FC Koln W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
42′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Pauline Machtens · Hamburger SV W
43′We published FC Koln W at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' M. Doucoure · Hamburger SV W
45′HALF-TIME FC Koln W 2–0 Hamburger SV W
46′SECOND HALF FC Koln W 2–0 Hamburger SV W
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 2–0 · 96–4–1
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Camilla Linberg · Hamburger SV W
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Koln W · On: Carlotta Imping · Off: Marina Hegering Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Koln W · On: Carlotta Imping · Off: beke sterner
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Hamburger SV W · On: Leni Eggert · Off: Jaqueline Donges
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Koln W · On: Weronika Zawistowska · Off: Lydia Nunes Martins Andrade
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hamburger SV W · On: Nigar Mirzaliyeva · Off: Jonna Maj Wrede
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Hamburger SV W · On: Nina Racke · Off: Camilla Linberg
75′A red card for Hamburger SV W on 74′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 99–1–0
75′🟥 RED CARD · 74' M. Doucoure · Hamburger SV W
76′We published FC Koln W at 51%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' FC Koln W 2–1 Hamburger SV W
77′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–11–1
80′Hamburger SV W pull one back on 76′ through Svea stoldt. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–9–1
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Laura Feiersinger · FC Koln W
85′We published FC Koln W at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' FC Koln W 3–1 Hamburger SV W
86′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Koln W · On: Laura Donhauser · Off: Laura Feiersinger
88′Pauline Bremer scores for FC Koln W on 87′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
88′Pauline Bremer scores for FC Koln W on 86′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′Pauline Bremer scores for FC Koln W on 85′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Amelie Claire Bohnen · FC Koln W
FTFULL TIME FC Koln W 3–1 Hamburger SV W
FTFC Koln W 3–1 Hamburger SV W · FC Koln W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Koln W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Koln W 51%, draw 24%, Hamburger SV W 25%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on FC Koln W v Hamburger SV WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Koln W win51%

Draw24%

Hamburger SV W win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSüdstadion

RefereeAnna-Lena Heidenreich

Line-ups

FC Koln W

3-5-2

Hamburger SV W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Koln W

Hamburger SV W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FC Koln W	6	+2	9
12	Hamburger SV W	6	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Koln W

3-5-2

1 L. Schmitz

5 C. Degen

15 A. Bohnen

29 V. Leimenstoll

37 B. Sterner

27 L. Feiersinger

8 L. Vogt

33 M. Hegering

20 C. Elsen

9 P. Bremer

17 L. Andrade

Coach · Britta Carlson

Substitutes

10 · W. Zawistowska

6 · Jil Schäfer

22 · Julia Schiffarth

35 · P. Nelles

14 · C. Imping

4 · K. Hendrich

25 · L. Donhauser

18 · T. Ziemer

32 · Greta Treede

Hamburger SV W

4-2-3-1

12 K. Szemik

2 M. Doucouré

8 S. Stoldt

6 A. Böhler

21 J. Dönges

28 P. Machtens

26 J. M. Wrede

7 C. Linberg

37 P. Bartz

10 C. Morich

11 M. Brunnthaler

Coach · Liése Brancão

Substitutes

39 · N. Räcke

5 · C. Obispo

4 · N. Mirzaliyeva

20 · N. Karczewska

29 · L. Eggert

36 · J. Baum

Our number · fc koln w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market62%

Us51%

~~Market~~62%

We make FC Koln W a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Koln W v Hamburger SV W~~1.68 – 1.07

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~8 v 12

~~The market · FC Koln W win~~62% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Koln W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Koln W win	51%	62%	−11
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Hamburger SV W win	25%	16%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	51%	57%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
FC Koln W or draw	75%	84%	−9
FC Koln W clean sheet	35%	–	–
Hamburger SV W clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 7.0 6.9 3.8 1 10.7 11.3 6.0 2.2 2 8.9 9.1 4.9 3 5.1 5.1 2.7 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Koln W down, Hamburger SV W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 753 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Koln W at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Hamburger SV W away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for FC Koln W, 1.07 for Hamburger SV W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 10:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCK 2–1 HAM · HAM 1–4 FCK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

FC KOLN W

LWWWLL0–2 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 2–5 · 0–1

HAMBURGER SV W

DLDLWL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	6	+5	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	6	+3	12
5	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
8	FC Koln W	6	+2	9
9	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	6	+1	5
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0