Bayern Munich W v Stuttgart W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Bayern Munich W 5–0 Stuttgart W BAYERN MUNICH W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bayern Munich W win~~89%

~~The market said~~89%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.019

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.018

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayern Munich W win at 89%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bayern Munich W was 89% before kick-off and our model makes it 89% now. 0–0 · 89–8–4
1′KICK-OFF Bayern Munich W v Stuttgart W
14′Bayern Munich W score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Bayern Munich W 1–0 Stuttgart W
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Bayern Munich W 2–0 Stuttgart W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Bayern Munich W win: 89% at kick-off, 99% now
18′Bayern Munich W ahead on 16′ through Pernille Harder. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
33′Goals are coming at about the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Bayern Munich W 2–0 Stuttgart W
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Stuttgart W · On: Jana Beuschlein · Off: Yuka Hirano
46′SECOND HALF Bayern Munich W 2–0 Stuttgart W
50′Klara Buhl scores for Bayern Munich W on 49′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bayern Munich W 3–0 Stuttgart W
59′59′: Pernille Harder on the scoresheet for Bayern Munich W, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bayern Munich W 4–0 Stuttgart W · Pernille Harder
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bayern Munich W · On: Alara Sehitler · Off: Sarah Zadrazil
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bayern Munich W · On: Magdalena Eriksson · Off: Stine Ballisager
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bayern Munich W · On: Barbara Dunst · Off: Franziska Kett
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stuttgart W · On: Leonie Schetter · Off: Lenelotte Müller
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stuttgart W · On: Katana Norman · Off: Greta Stegemann
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stuttgart W · On: Svenja Hecke · Off: Verena Wieder
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bayern Munich W · On: Kassandra Potsi · Off: Linda Dallmann
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bayern Munich W · On: Sophie Proost · Off: Klara Buhl
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Stuttgart W · On: Tamar Dongus · Off: Nicole Billa
90′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.4 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bayern Munich W 5–0 Stuttgart W
91′Bayern Munich W ahead on 89′ through Edna Imade. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Bayern Munich W 5–0 Stuttgart W
FTBayern Munich W 5–0 Stuttgart W · Bayern Munich W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayern Munich W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayern Munich W 89%, draw 8%, Stuttgart W 4%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Bayern Munich W v Stuttgart WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Bayern Munich W win89%

Draw8%

Stuttgart W win4%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueFC Bayern Campus

RefereeNadine Westerhoff

Line-ups

Bayern Munich W

4-2-3-1

Stuttgart W

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayern Munich W

Stuttgart W

16Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
10	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bayern Munich W

4-2-3-1

1 E. Mahmutovic

11 S. Mattner-Trembleau

4 G. Viggósdóttir

3 S. Ballisager

20 F. Kett

18 M. Tanikawa

25 S. Zadrazil

10 L. Dallmann

21 P. Harder

17 K. Bühl

29 E. Imade

Coach · José Barcala

Substitutes

15 · B. Amani

28 · B. Dunst

5 · M. Eriksson

19 · K. Naschenweng

6 · Kassandra Potsi

23 · S. Proost

22 · R. van Eijk

14 · A. Şehitler

Stuttgart W

5-3-2

1 L. Giuliani

31 V. Wieder

5 G. Stegemann

23 L. Zähringer

16 J. Hechler

3 Lenelotte Muller

19 Y. Hirano

22 A. Achcińska

6 C. Hagel

26 N. Billa

7 Dafina Redzepi

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · K. Schäfer

27 · Leonie Schetter

10 · H. Osawa

24 · Katana Norman

32 · Tamar Dongus

34 · Svenja Hecke

35 · Laura Carollo

20 · Jana Beuschlein

12 · K. Beck

Our number · bayern munich w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

89% The market89%

Us89%

~~Market~~89%

We make Bayern Munich W an 89% chance to win. The market has them at 89%. We are level with the market. The model expects 3.8–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayern Munich W v Stuttgart W~~3.81 – 0.58

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 8~~2 v 10

~~The market · Bayern Munich W win~~89% · ours 89%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayern Munich W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 89% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayern Munich W win	89%	89%	0
Draw	8%	7%	+1
Stuttgart W win	4%	4%	0
Over 2.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	92%	90%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Bayern Munich W or draw	96%	96%	0
Bayern Munich W clean sheet	58%	–	–
Stuttgart W clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.8%

0123450 1 5.6 3.4 2 9.4 5.5 3 10.8 6.0 4 9.7 5.2 5 7.4 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayern Munich W down, Stuttgart W across0–5 goals a side shown (79.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 757 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.0% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Bayern Munich W at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Stuttgart W away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

3.81 goals for Bayern Munich W, 0.58 for Stuttgart W. Most likely score 3–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 16:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug

BAYERN MUNICH W

WWWWWW4–1 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0

STUTTGART W

WWDLDL2–1 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	VfL Wolfsburg W	7	+15	18
2	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	7	+5	14
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	+3	13
5	FC Koln W	7	+4	12
6	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
7	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	−2	9
10	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	−1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	−13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	−21	0