Bayer Leverkusen W v Eintracht Frankfurt W prediction · Frauen Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Bayer Leverkusen W 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W BAYER LEVERKUSEN W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bayer Leverkusen W win~~39%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.903

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bayer Leverkusen W win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bayer Leverkusen W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–23–39
1′KICK-OFF Bayer Leverkusen W v Eintracht Frankfurt W
15′A goal for Bayer Leverkusen W on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–20–18
15′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 63%. 1–0 · 63–20–18
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Bayer Leverkusen W 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt W
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Bayer Leverkusen W win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
16′Cornelia Kramer scores for Bayer Leverkusen W on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–20–18
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Sara Doorsoun-Khajeh · Eintracht Frankfurt W
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 64–21–15
32′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
45′Eintracht Frankfurt W have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
45′8 shots for Eintracht Frankfurt W, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
45′HALF-TIME Bayer Leverkusen W 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt W
46′SECOND HALF Bayer Leverkusen W 1–0 Eintracht Frankfurt W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Bayer Leverkusen W win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
54′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–22–9
65′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–48–26
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Bayer Leverkusen W 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Bayer Leverkusen W win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Bayer Leverkusen W win 26%)
66′64′: Laura Freigang on the scoresheet for Eintracht Frankfurt W, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–49–25
68′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–51–24
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bayer Leverkusen W · On: Vanessa·Fudalla · Off: Loreen Bender
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bayer Leverkusen W · On: lumbardha misini · Off: Paulina Platner
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bayer Leverkusen W · On: Caroline Victoria Kehrer · Off: Maja Sternad
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: Ainhoa Alguacil · Off: dilara acikgoz
74′14 shots for Eintracht Frankfurt W, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 20–60–20
75′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–61–19
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Bayer Leverkusen W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: Hayley Raso · Off: Larissa Michelle Mühlhaus
81′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–73–13
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: Noemi Ivelj · Off: Rebecka Blomqvist
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: danique tolhoek · Off: Laura Freigang
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: Marthine Ostenstad · Off: Sara Doorsoun-Khajeh
85′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bayer Leverkusen W win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Eintracht Frankfurt W · On: Marthine Ostenstad · Off: Sara Doorsoun-Khajeh
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bayer Leverkusen W · On: Lobke Loonen · Off: Cornelia Kramer
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bayer Leverkusen W · On: valentina madl · Off: Marlene Muller
91′We said Bayer Leverkusen W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–91–4
FTFULL TIME Bayer Leverkusen W 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W
FTBayer Leverkusen W 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt W · Bayer Leverkusen W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bayer Leverkusen W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bayer Leverkusen W 39%, draw 22%, Eintracht Frankfurt W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Bayer Leverkusen W v Eintracht Frankfurt WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bayer Leverkusen W win39%

Draw22%

Eintracht Frankfurt W win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueUlrich-Haberland-Stadion

RefereeKaroline Wacker

Line-ups

Bayer Leverkusen W

4-4-2

Eintracht Frankfurt W

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bayer Leverkusen W

Eintracht Frankfurt W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 2 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauen Bundesliga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	6	+5	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	6	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bayer Leverkusen W

4-4-2

12 R. Borggräfe

10 E. Gonzalez

24 L. Turányi

2 S. Ostermeier

30 C. Simon

19 L. Bender

6 P. Platner

5 C. Wenger

27 M. Müller

23 M. Sternad

7 C. Kramer

Coach · R. Pätzold

Substitutes

34 · L. Misini

1 · C. Voll

14 · Emily Reine Zalissa Wallrabenstein

18 · L. Loonen

8 · J. Brandau

21 · V. Fudalla

9 · C. Kehrer

43 · Jana Lindner

17 · V. Mädl

Eintracht Frankfurt W

4-4-2

12 L. Altenburg

27 P. Krumbiegel

23 S. Doorsoun

13 A. Ilestedt

11 N. Lührßen

29 Dilara Açıkgöz

8 H. Bennison

47 L. Mühlhaus

7 E. Memeti

10 L. Freigang

28 R. Blomqvist

Coach · Niko Arnautis

Substitutes

4 · N. Ivelj

21 · J. Krumme

24 · V. Lia

16 · H. Raso

9 · J. Teulings

22 · D. Tolhoek

17 · P. Wolter

26 · Ainhoa Alguacil

14 · M. Østenstad

Our number · bayer leverkusen w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market28%

Us39%

~~Market~~28%

We make Bayer Leverkusen W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bayer Leverkusen W v Eintracht Frankfurt W~~1.72 – 1.71

~~Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 13~~4 v 3

~~The market · Bayer Leverkusen W win~~28% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bayer Leverkusen W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bayer Leverkusen W win	39%	28%	+11
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Eintracht Frankfurt W win	39%	48%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	66%	61%	+5
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	45%	40%	+5
Bayer Leverkusen W or draw	61%	52%	+9
Bayer Leverkusen W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Eintracht Frankfurt W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 5.7 4.9 2.8 1 5.6 9.5 7.9 4.5 2.0 2 4.8 7.8 6.6 3.8 3 2.8 4.5 3.8 2.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bayer Leverkusen W down, Eintracht Frankfurt W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 753 Frauen Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauen Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.1% of games this season, across 43 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bayer Leverkusen W at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Eintracht Frankfurt W away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Bayer Leverkusen W, 1.71 for Eintracht Frankfurt W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EIN 1–0 BAY · BAY 2–1 EIN · EIN 3–2 BAY · BAY 2–2 EIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Frauen Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

BAYER LEVERKUSEN W

WLWLWW2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 3–2

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT W

WDWWWL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bayern Munich W	6	+13	18
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	6	+10	15
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	6	+5	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	6	+3	12
5	RB Leipzig W	7	+4	10
6	Werder Bremen W	6	+2	10
7	SC Freiburg W	7	−2	10
8	FC Koln W	6	+2	9
9	Stuttgart W	6	−4	8
10	Union Berlin W	6	−3	6
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	−3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	6	+1	5
13	Nürnberg W	6	−12	2
14	Mainz 05 W	6	−16	0